342 
fxus64 klix 182035 
afdlix 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service New Orleans la 
335 PM CDT Friday Jul 18 2008 


Synopsis... 
with the exception of a few isolated showers south of Lake 
Pontchartrain...there has not been much convection today. Even 
the cloud field has been much more sparse than expected. High 
pressure remains in place over the southeastern Continental U.S. And with 
the exception of some rain-cooled air south of the lake... 
temperatures are generally in the low 90s across the region with 
dewpoints near 70. 


&& 


Short term... 
high pressure will remain parked over the southeastern Continental U.S. 
Through the short term. With conditions a bit drier than usual and 
the middle level inversion forecast to persist through the weekend... 
I contemplated going with only silent 10s for the short term. 
Ultimately though...I left the slight chance in the forecast 
since I can not rule out a few isolated showers and thunderstorms. 
Granted...20 percent may be a bit overdone...but I still felt it 
deserved at least the slight chance mention. That said...the 
short term forecast is basically persistence with temperatures in 
the low to middle 90s and a 20 percent chance of showers and 
thunderstorms each day. 


Long term... 
late in the weekend and into the early part of next week...a 
rigorous tropical wave is forecast to move through the central 
Gulf of Mexico. The wave is currently located in the eastern 
Caribbean....and though it looked like it was becoming better 
organized this morning...a reconnaissance flight was not able to 
find a closed surface circulation this afternoon...so it has not 
been called a tropical depression at this time. Regardless of its 
designation...all of the available models forecast the wave to 
remain well south of the Louisiana and Mississippi Gulf coasts. 


Though the wave will not impact our area directly...as it moves 
westward through the Gulf...it will help bring deep tropical 
moisture back to our area. The increase in moisture should help 
fire off afternoon showers and thunderstorms each day Tuesday 
through Friday. 


&& 


Aviation... 
VFR conditions will prevail at all of the terminals through the next 
24 hours with the exception of some light patchy fog overnight at 
btr...mcb...and gpt. In these locations...visibilities could drop to 
MVFR for a couple of hours. 


&& 


Marine... 
light winds and low seas are expected through the weekend as a weak 
pressure gradient continues to prevail across the coastal waters. 
Early next week...a tropical wave is expected to enter the southern 
Gulf of Mexico which may bring seas of 2 to 4 feet and winds near 15 
knots. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
mcb 70 94 72 94 / 10 20 10 20 
btr 73 95 74 95 / 10 20 10 20 
msy 75 92 77 93 / 10 20 10 20 
gpt 73 92 75 92 / 10 20 10 20 


&& 


Lix watches/warnings/advisories... 
la...none. 
GM...none. 
MS...none. 
GM...none. 
&& 


$$ 
Aviation/marine...92/09 
rest of discussion...95/dm