483 
fxus64 klch 052000 
afdlch 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Lake Charles la 
300 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2008 


Discussion...local radar showing a few showers and thunderstorms 
have developed along sea-breeze along and south of the Interstate 
10 corridor. Further development expected as afternoon progresses. 
Otherwise...a very typical early July day with current temperatures 
around 90...dewpoints in the upper 60s north to the low 70s south. 


Again will be making only minor changes to current grid/zone 
package. Throughout forecast...area will remain under influence 
of sharp low level ridge extending west through the northern 
Gulf/southeast Continental U.S.. orientation will maintain a steady stream of 
warm and moist Gulf air holding temperatures at seasonable norms. Rain 
chances diminishing somewhat Sunday and Monday as a drier 
northerly flow develops aloft over area as eastern Continental U.S. Trough 
migrates further east and deepens followed by southwest Continental U.S. 
Ridge advancing into the plains. At this time carrying 20 percent 
chance for isolated development. 


Mex numbers pinging on some much higher probability of precipitation for middle week as area 
comes under influence of easterly wave moving across western Gulf. 
Deepening onshore flow driving precipitable waters values above 2 
inches. European model (ecmwf) not as aggressive. At this time will maintain chance 
probability of precipitation. Models suggesting end of the week back to minimal rain chances 
and higher temperatures as anticyclone edges westward along the 
northern Gulf Coast. 


&& 


Aviation...VFR will prevail for the remainder of the afternoon 
with any clouds remaining above 3k feet. Exception to this will be a 
few showers and thunderstorms briefly dropping sky/visibility into MVFR 
or below. Clear skies to return overnight. 


&& 


Marine...high pressure extending west across the Gulf waters will 
maintain a light to moderate onshore flow through tonight and much 
of the coming week. A weakness aloft will allow for a daily chance 
for shower and thunderstorm development. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
klch 73 92 75 92 / 20 20 20 20 
kbpt 73 91 76 91 / 20 20 20 20 
kaex 71 94 72 94 / 20 20 20 20 
klft 73 92 75 93 / 20 20 20 20 


&& 


Lch watches/warnings/advisories... 
la...none. 
Texas...none. 
GM...none. 
&& 


$$ 


Marcotte