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fxus64 kshv 082052 
afdshv 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Shreveport la 
352 PM CDT Friday Aug 8 2008 


Discussion... 
cold front making decent progress for a middle Summer back door entry 
into the County Warning Area. Middle to upper 50 dewpoints have mixed down...probably 
into NE Texas shortly looking at dequeen profiler...but already down 
along I-20 corridor in north cen la. I do expect a slight rebound 
after sunset...but a still pretty cool night with fair skies over 
all but the SW corner. GFS/NAM model winds mix back from the 
southeast early in the weekend so am and PM temperatures will rebound 
after one well below average night. Winds back out of the 
southeast will do well for more northwest flow activity. And there is no shortage 
of that pattern well into next week. The forecast reads like a 
drought buster...but we are still in Dyer straits rain wise after 
the recent heat and a super dry July and early August. At any rate 
a welcomed change from the recent past and what is normally 
expected for this time of year with above average rainfall 
expected for the next calander week. /24/ 


&& 


Aviation... 
cold front continues to drop southward across la at mid-afternoon... 
carrying most of the convection with it. I expect the coverage of 
any lingering rain showers/thunderstorms and rain to gradually wane after sunset in most 
places as middle-level dry air tries to work its way further S. There 
could be a few rain showers/thunderstorms and rain along the front overnight...generally 
around the ktyr-klfk line. Because of the anticipated isolated 
nature of this convection...I will refrain from mentioning it in the 
tafs at this time. In addition...flight categories may be reduced 
to MVFR territory after 09/0600 UTC in places that received rain 
earlier today. Otherwise...flight categories should largely remain 
VFR...except in the vicinity of convection. /Butts/ 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
shv 66 94 75 91 74 / 10 20 30 50 50 
mlu 63 94 70 86 73 / 10 0 20 60 60 
deq 63 92 71 86 70 / 0 20 50 60 40 
txk 64 94 72 89 71 / 0 20 40 60 50 
eld 63 94 69 85 70 / 0 0 40 60 60 
tyr 71 95 76 94 76 / 20 20 20 30 40 
ggg 68 94 74 92 74 / 20 20 20 30 40 
lfk 71 96 75 94 76 / 30 20 10 20 20 


&& 


Shv watches/warnings/advisories... 
Arkansas...none. 
La...none. 
OK...none. 
Texas...none. 
&& 


$$ 


24/21