772 
fxus64 klch 082039 
afdlch 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Lake Charles la 
339 PM CDT Friday Aug 8 2008 


Discussion...latest surface analysis shows the weak front still 
slowly dropping south across the northern 1/2 of the forecast area. 
Regional 88ds show main convection has afternoon has conglomerated 
into a convective complex over the near shore waters from Sabine 
Pass to off Atchafalaya Bay and pushing southward. As this convection 
passed over lower Acadiana...strong to severe storms were the rule 
with a report of a probably tornado being received from New 
Iberia. Meanwhile scattered showers and storms continue to pop up 
over much of the area as we get into maximum heating hours. Expect 
this activity to continue through sunset before dying down. Have 
kept small probability of precipitation in the forecast overnight over mainly the southern 
zones where the front itself could provide enough of a focus for 
showers or storms to develop. 


By Saturday short-range models agree on bringing some drier air 
behind the front into the northestern part of the area while deepest 
moisture remains in place from lower Acadiana along the I-10 
corridor to inland southeast Texas. Thus have tapered probability of precipitation from 10 percent 
across the northestern zones to 30 percent within the zone of higher 
moisture. Front is then prognosticated to lift back north by Sunday while 
strong vorticity maximum is prognosticated to drop mainly to our east around the 
base of the eastern Continental U.S. Trough. Again highest probability of precipitation over the eastern 
portion of the forecast area. 


Beyond then models have differing solutions on shortwaves aloft. 
Regardless enough moisture/instability prognosticated to keep at least 
small probability of precipitation running through the remainder of the forecast. As usual 
for summertime best chances will be during the afternoon and 
evening hours. 


&& 


Aviation...other than tempo groups for the remainder of the 
afternoon to account for scattered convection across the area... 
VFR conditions expected into tomorrow. 


&& 


Marine...winds will pick up late Sunday and linger into the early 
part of the week as low pressure deepens over the Southern Plains and 
high pressure builds over the eastern Gulf. Small Craft Advisory conditions look probable 
for Monday and Tuesday. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
klch 73 93 76 92 77 / 30 30 20 20 20 
kbpt 74 93 75 92 77 / 30 30 20 20 20 
kaex 68 94 74 92 74 / 20 10 10 30 30 
klft 72 92 75 92 75 / 20 20 10 30 30 


&& 


Lch watches/warnings/advisories... 
la...none. 
Texas...none. 
GM...none. 
&& 


$$ 


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