953 
fxus64 klix 052002 
afdlix 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service New Orleans la 
302 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2008 


Short term... 
convective coverage thusfar has been less than past days but 
earlier cloud cover did hamper things a bit. Coverage is slowly 
increasing at this time and will probably continue to do so 
through 7 PM before leveling off then dissipating by 9 PM. More 
vigorous activity in the Mobile river basin of western Alabama. 
There has been a westward propagation component to those storms 
and some may eventually build into lower Mississippi. The Gulf 
Breeze and lake breeze was about two hours delayed in forming and 
advancing...having just reached the I-10 corridor along 
Mississippi coast and not quite to I-12 corridor for the lake 
breeze convergence. Outflow from earlier storms over northern 
Plaquemines Parish is moving into the New Orleans metropolitan area and 
will likely react to lake breeze for convective initiation 
shortly. Otherwise...low end scattered coverage expected for the 
remainder of this afternoon and will hold on to 20 percent for 
this evening. Also think coverage will be lower Sunday due to 
persistent ridging at the surface and lack of focus outside of 
Gulf/Lake breeze convergence boundaries. Will show 20 percent for 
Sunday but drop back to 10 percent over land Sunday night. 
Temperatures status quo near normal. 


Long term... 
models are hinting at some variability from day to day...mainly by 
opening the flow around the Bermuda ridge from a Caribbean fetch. 
The NAM...and to a lesser extent...the GFS are showing some open 
wave feature traversing the periphery of the ridge towards the 
north Gulf Coast late Tuesday or early Wednesday. This may bring 
an increase to rain chances and coverage by mid-week. Will hold 
around 40-50 percent from Monday Onward each afternoon but may 
need to adjust upward on one or more days if model trends 
continue. Temperatures should fluctuate little...particularly with 
daytime highs...but mins may bump up a degree or two with higher 
dewpoint advection in time from the Caribbean fetch. 


&& 


Aviation... 
prevailing VFR through next 24 hours. 


&& 


Marine... 
light winds and low seas to persist outside land breeze convection 
in the morning hours near shore each day. Thunderstorm coverage 
may increase over the eastern coastal waters middle-week as deeper 
fetch of moisture advances northward around Bermuda ridge. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
mcb 70 90 70 91 / 20 20 10 40 
btr 72 91 73 92 / 20 20 10 40 
msy 75 90 75 90 / 20 20 10 40 
gpt 74 89 73 89 / 20 20 10 40 


&& 


Lix watches/warnings/advisories... 
la...none. 
GM...none. 
MS...none. 
GM...none. 
&& 


$$ 


24