576 
fxus64 klch 220020 
afdlch 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Lake Charles la 
620 PM CST Sat Nov 21 2009 


Aviation... 
surface low off the la coast while the upper level low is sitting over 
Vernon Parish at this time with storms extending from southeast Rapides Parish 
into eastern Vernon Parish. A broad area of rain continues across 
southern la. Ceilings blw 010 and visibility less than 6sm from rain/br. Weather to 
continue through the overnight hours. 


&& 


Previous discussion... /issued 247 PM CST Sat Nov 21 2009/ 


Discussion...surface analysis now indicating surface low just 
offshore near Marsh Island. Radar showing bulk of rains north of 
Interstate 10...north and northeast of feature. 


Surface low...middle level low and upper trough to advance east northeast 
overnight with any lingering rains coming to an end. Remainder of 
the weekend looking pleasant with drier air advecting in from a low level 
northerly flow...trending toward zonal aloft. Expecting seasonably 
warm days and cool nights both Sunday and Monday. 


Next rain chance arrives Tuesday with our next frontal passage 
depicted similarly by the GFS and European model (ecmwf). Cooler 1025 mb high 
following frontal passage will bring lower temperatures through the remainder of 
the week along with an extended dry period. 


Marine...winds will weaken overnight and seas lower as low 
pressure moves inland over south central Louisiana then advances 
east northeast. An offshore flow will continue through the 
remainder of the weekend...becoming southerly Monday ahead of our 
next frontal passage expected Tuesday. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
klch 49 67 46 72 53 / 20 0 0 0 10 
kbpt 49 68 47 74 56 / 10 0 0 0 20 
kaex 48 65 43 70 47 / 50 10 0 0 10 
klft 50 64 48 70 51 / 30 10 0 0 10 


&& 


Lch watches/warnings/advisories... 
la...none. 
Texas...none. 
GM...Small Craft Advisory until midnight CST tonight for the 
following zones: Calcasieu Lake...coastal waters from 
Cameron, la to High Island, Texas out 20 nm...coastal waters 
from Intracoastal City to Cameron, la out 20 nm...coastal 
waters from lower Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal City, 
la out 20 nm...Sabine Lake...Vermilion Bay...waters from 
Cameron, la to High Island, Texas extending from 20 nm to 60 
nm...waters from Intracoastal City, la to Cameron, la 
extending from 20 nm to 60 nm...waters from lower 
Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal City, la extending from 
20 nm to 60 nm. 


&& 


$$