679 
fxus64 klch 182037 
afdlch 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Lake Charles la 
337 PM CDT Friday Jul 18 2008 


Short term... 


Radar imagery this afternoon indicates that scattered showers and 
thunderstorms have developed over two main areas...the first over 
southeast Texas and southwest Louisiana...and the second over 
central Louisiana mainly just north of the County Warning Area. With temperatures 
continuing to rise expect convective temperatures to be met in the rest 
of the County Warning Area with other convection forming. 


Fairly typical summertime weather in the short term. Upper low 
along the Texas coast is prognosticated to move westward tomorrow which 
will reduce the coverage over showers and storms across the area. 
Convective coverage should be reduced even further on Sunday as 
heights rise along the Gulf Coast. This will also allow highs to 
climb as well...with temperatures expected to be in the middle to upper 90s 
by Sunday afternoon. 


&& 


Long term... 


Models keep the upper ridge axis in place over our region early 
next week. However...on Monday attention turns to the tropics as 
the strong tropical wave currently in the central Caribbean Sea 
should be crossing the Yucatan Peninsula into the southwestern 
Gulf of Mexico. Both the GFS and European model (ecmwf) show this wave potentially 
developing into a tropical cyclone before moving inland across 
northern Mexico late Tuesday or Wednesday. Regardless of 
development...the tropical wave should help spread deep moisture 
into the County Warning Area from Tuesday into Wednesday...with precipitable waters  prognosticated to 
rise well over 2 inches. MOS guidance jumps on this and indicates 
likely probability of precipitation for Wednesday and Thursday. Will not go quite as high 
yet but have nudged up probability of precipitation for the middle of next week. 
Associated cloud cover should also keep temperatures down somewhat...and 
have lowered highs from middle week Onward. 


Extended models indicate a weakness developing along the Gulf 
Coast between an upper ridge over the western Continental U.S. And the 
Bermuda ridge off the East Coast. This would likely support a 
wetter pattern for our region by the end of next week...but for 
now have kept probability of precipitation and temperatures near climatology. 


&& 


Aviation... 


Thunderstorms in the vicinity at all terminals through 00z with VFR ceilings expected. All 
convective activity expected to diminish rapidly after 00z with 
VFR conditions continuing. MVFR visibilities are possible 
overnight between 9z to 13z. 


&& 


Marine... 


Light winds and seas will continue through Monday with only 
isolated showers and thunderstorms expected in the coastal waters. 
Winds and seas along with precipitation chances will increase by midweek 
as a tropical wave moves across the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. 
This wave will continued to be monitored for possible tropical 
cyclone development. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
klch 73 93 74 94 74 / 20 30 10 20 10 
kbpt 74 93 74 94 74 / 20 30 10 20 10 
kaex 71 96 72 97 72 / 20 30 10 20 10 
klft 73 93 74 94 74 / 20 30 10 20 10 


&& 


Lch watches/warnings/advisories... 
la...none. 
Texas...none. 
GM...none. 
&& 


$$ 


Shamburger