164 
fxus61 Kiln 060112 
afdiln 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wilmington Ohio 
912 PM EDT Sat Jul 5 2008 


Synopsis... 
a weak closed upper low over the Ohio Valley will gradually fill 
and shift east through early Monday. An upper trough will dig 
across the Great Lakes Tuesday and Wednesday. 


&& 


Near term /until 6 am Sunday morning/... 
isolated showers and thunderstorms have pretty much come to an end 
across our area. Diurnal cumulus just about gone too so will just go 
with mostly clear the rest of the night. 
&& 


Short term /6 am Sunday morning through Monday night/... 
return southerly flow sets in on Sunday which brings a steady 
warmup through the period. May see some isolated showers and 
storms develop in an unstable airmass Sunday afternoon...mainly 
across the eastern County Warning Area in closer proximity to the upper low. May 
see more scattered activity on Monday as the atmosphere remains 
unstable and upper flow becomes more zonal. Mav and met showing 
higher than usual discrepancies regarding temperatures...with the mav 
coming in 5-7 degrees warmer than the met on Sunday. Generally 
split the difference between these two solutions...which matches 
up well with prognosticated 850 hpa temperatures. 


&& 


Long term /Tuesday through Saturday/... 
a cold front will cross the region early in the period. There is 
some uncertainty with timing but during the day Wednesday seems to 
be most likely at this point. Showers and thunderstorms will be 
likely ahead of the front but with some questions remaining 
concerning exact timing have opted to stay with high chance for now. 
After frontal passage high pressure will build in keeping the rest 
of the week dry. 


&& 


Aviation /01z Sunday through Thursday/... 
diurnally enhanced cumulus are dissipating across the area early this 
evening and we may actually end up going mainly clear overnight. 
Have hung on to some scattered clouds though through the overnight 
hours as upper level low will be overhead and the models 
continue to indicate some low level moisture present. Will allow 
for some MVFR br at the more favorable locations...and kluk may 
actually go IFR for a while given favorable light southeast to east 
flow overnight. 


With upper level low still overhead and airmass destabilizing...expect 
fair amount of cumulus once again on Sunday. May even see a few isolated 
thunderstorms in vicinity of kcmh/klck but will keep out of taf at this time due to 
low probability. 


Outlook...thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday through Wednesday. 


&& 


Iln watches/warnings/advisories... 
Ohio...none. 
Kentucky...none. 
In...none. 


&& 


$$ 
Synopsis...hawblitzel 
near term...jgl 
short term...hawblitzel 
long term... 
aviation...jgl