412 
fxus63 kict 212020 
afdict 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas 
320 PM CDT Thursday Aug 21 2008 


Discussion... 
forecast highlights include thunderstorm chances late tomorrow 
afternoon through Sunday as a frontal boundary moves in from the 
northwest. 


Relatively minor instability coupled with weak forcing ahead of 
middle/upper level trough axis will result in isolated 
showers/thundershowers through shortly after sunset across southeast 
Kansas. Loss of daytime heating along with trough axis pushing east 
of the area will discourage precipitation once the sun GOES down. 


Otherwise...moist low-levels coupled with diurnal cooling and 
relatively light winds will promote patchy fog and low clouds 
tonight...generally east of the Turnpike. Greater boundary layer 
mixing will discourage low clouds and fog generally west of I-135. 


Friday should be the warmest day of the next 7 days...due to strong 
southerly flow ahead of approaching frontal boundary from the 
northwest. Expecting highs in upper 80s/90s. Thinking 
isolated/widely scattered storms will be possible by late 
afternoon/early evening across central/north central Kansas...and 
persist into the evening hours. Despite decent instability and 
convergence...upper support and middle/upper flow will be lacking. 
Consequently...not anticipating widespread severe weather. 
However...degree of instability and convergence along with some 
directional shear may promote isolated/widely scattered severe 
storms capable of marginally severe hail and downbursts. Thinking 
this activity will weaken during the evening...as it attempts to 
congeal into an mesoscale convective system and propagate southward into an increasing 
low-level jet. However...lack of upper support/flow and increasing 
cap with time and southward extent should tend to decrease probability of precipitation 
farther south into south-central and southeast Kansas for the overnight 
hours. 


Frontal boundary should begin washing out Saturday/Sunday across the 
area. Upper support will be non-existent...but some convergence and 
instability should promote at least widely scattered mainly 
afternoon/evening thunderstorms across the area...likely of the 
pulse variant. 


If the GFS verifies...Monday and Tuesday could spell some 
thunderstorms across the area...with modest northwest flow aloft 
along eastern edge of middle-level cap...along with some low-level 
confluence. However...seems like the GFS is suffering from 
convective feedback...and European model (ecmwf) does not support the GFS...so left 
forecast dry for now. For middle to late week...GFS and European model (ecmwf) progress 
a fairly potent middle/upper trough across the northern/central 
Continental U.S....with a significant cold front surging southeast across the 
plains. If models come into better agreement...severe weather 
chances will need to be watched for this time period. 


With the exception of Friday...near to below normal temperatures are 
anticipated through much of the next 7 days. 


Kleinsasser 


&& 


Aviation...18z tafs: krsl/ksln/khut/kict/kcnu... 
moist boundary layer will continue to support MVFR ceilings 
across the Flint Hills and southeast Kansas through much of 
the valid period...with a period of IFR conditions within 
a few hours of dawn on Friday morning. Weak instability 
under the remnant upper trough will also support diurnally 
driven showers...though character of forecast soundings 
suggest rather low-topped convection with tops generally 
under 20k feet...and minimal chance for thunderstorms and rain. 


Generally improving conditions for western portion of 
forecast area...though periodic diurnal MVFR ceilings to continue 
this afternoon...with some early morning MVFR stratus/fog 
possible again Friday morning. 


Ked 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Wichita-kict 69 93 70 88 / 20 0 20 30 
Hutchinson 68 95 69 87 / 10 0 20 30 
Newton 68 93 69 87 / 20 0 20 30 
Eldorado 68 91 70 86 / 20 0 10 30 
Winfield-kwld 69 92 70 88 / 20 0 10 30 
Russell 67 96 67 86 / 10 20 50 30 
Great Bend 68 96 68 87 / 10 10 40 30 
Salina 67 95 68 86 / 10 10 40 30 
McPherson 68 95 69 86 / 10 0 30 30 
Coffeyville 68 87 70 86 / 40 10 10 30 
Chanute 68 87 70 86 / 40 10 10 30 
Iola 68 87 70 87 / 40 10 10 30 
Parsons-kppf 68 87 70 86 / 40 10 10 30 


&& 


Ict watches/warnings/advisories...none. 


&& 


$$