687 
fxus63 kict 212111 
afdict 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas 
311 PM CST Sat Nov 21 2009 


Discussion... 


The main forecast concerns are fog and drizzle potential tonight and 
precipitation chances Monday into Tuesday. 


Synopsis: 
low clouds have slowly begun to dissipate and move northward across 
the forecast area...and areas that have seen some sunshine have 
climbed into the lower 60s. Otherwise temperatures are generally in 
the middle 50s. An upper trough is moving eastward across The 
Rockies...and will affect the forecast area Monday into Tuesday. 


Tonight: 
lots of low level moisture will continue to linger across the area 
this evening into tonight as southerly flow continues. Could see 
some breaks in the cloud cover as the overnight progresses...but 
main concern will be this low level moisture and whether patchy fog 
and possible drizzle will redevelop. Short term models differ on 
how to handle this moisture as a weak surface trough across extreme 
western Kansas moves into western sections of central Kansas by early on sun. Prefer 
to go with the more pessimistic GFS which keeps the low level 
moisture and clouds around overnight...which could lead to some 
patchy fog development as stratus builds down some overnight. So 
will include this mention...especially from 09-14z/sun. Could also 
see low layers saturate enough for some drizzle across central Kansas 
early on sun...so will keep this mention as well. 


Ketcham 


Sunday-tuesday: 
a cold front will be coming through the forecast area on 
Monday...and will bring a chance for precipitation. There are still 
differences between the GFS and European model (ecmwf) today...with the GFS taking 
the best dynamics on a more northerly track and European model (ecmwf) on a more 
southerly track. Given the ecmwf's consistency over several model 
runs...will continue with this solution in the forecast...which will 
mean there is still a chance for some snow across central Kansas. Do 
not see any reason to make significant changes to this portion of 
the forecast at this point. Cooler temperatures begin to move in by 
Tuesday morning...as the first chunk of cold air comes south over 
the plains. 


Wednesday-friday: 
the main focus during this period will be another chunk of cold air 
coming south from Canada on the back side of the low as. There are 
large differences between the European model (ecmwf) and GFS with respect to 850mb 
temperatures by Thursday morning. Will not make any wholesale 
changes at this point...but it is possible that Thanksgiving will be 
slightly below normal...or several degrees above normal. Stay 
tuned... 


Schreck 


&& 


Aviation...18z tafs krsl/ksln/khut/kict/kcnu 


Stubborn low clouds and some patchy fog continues near kict/khut/ 
kcnu....with both krsl/ksln beginning to mix out as winds start to 
increase. NAM and GFS differ on how they want to handle the MVFR to 
near IFR cloud deck this afternoon. The NAM seems to be a little 
more optimistic in the low layer cloud deck clearing out at the 
afternoon progresses...so will go with this trend for the first 12 
hours as visible satellite shows cloud deck breaking up some. 


After 06z/sun...lack of mixing to the east of Interstate 135 could 
again lead to MVFR to possibly IFR ceilings redeveloping for the 
kict/khut/ksln taf sites overnight. Prefer this more pessimistic 
cloud trend but confidence is low...given poor model performance 
when it comes to this low level moisture. Things look to improve on 
sun....as a surface trough approaches from the west with surface 
winds expected to mix things out. 


Ketcham 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Wichita-kict 44 57 40 61 / 10 10 0 20 
Hutchinson 44 56 40 60 / 10 10 10 20 
Newton 44 55 39 59 / 10 10 10 20 
Eldorado 42 57 38 59 / 10 10 10 20 
Winfield-kwld 44 58 42 61 / 10 10 0 20 
Russell 38 55 33 54 / 10 10 10 20 
Great Bend 41 54 35 54 / 10 10 0 20 
Salina 41 57 39 58 / 10 10 10 20 
McPherson 44 57 40 59 / 10 10 10 20 
Coffeyville 45 63 45 61 / 10 10 10 20 
Chanute 45 63 44 61 / 10 10 10 20 
Iola 44 61 42 59 / 10 10 10 20 
Parsons-kppf 45 63 45 61 / 10 10 10 20 


&& 


Ict watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 
&& 


$$