174 
fxus63 kict 181723 
afdict 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas 
1223 PM CDT Friday Jul 18 2008 


Update... 


Tweaked grids a bit earlier to account for current conditions/trends. 
0600 UTC models struggled badly with ongoing precipitation...but 
1200 UTC runs...especially global forecast system model...seem to 
be roughly heading in the right direction. 1200 UTC upper air 
analysis showed decent warm air advection across the Flint Hills 
ahead of upper wave. Present indications are convective rain 
showers will continue into the afternoon across southeast Kansas ahead 
of the wave while subsidence behind wave may suppress precipitation 
in the western half. For tonight...considerable uncertainty...but 
best guess would put more elevated rain showers/thunderstorms 
across the northeastern half of the forecast area where better 
middle level temperature/moisture gradient is expected. -Howerton 


&& 


Aviation... brief MVFR conditions have been occurring this 
morning with the heavier rain showers...but overall the 
precipitation will be on the wane. Given uncertainty of 
thunderstorms overnight...opted to only go cumulonimbus for now. 
-Howerton 


&& 


Previous discussion... /issued 706 am CDT Friday Jul 18 2008/ 


Discussion... 
we are sending out a quick update to reduce probability of precipitation across central 
and south central Kansas this morning. The main focus for shower 
activity this morning will be associated with the mesoscale 
convective vorticity lobe rotating through northeast Kansas. 


Cox 


Previous discussion... /issued 645 am CDT Friday Jul 18 2008/ 


Aviation...12z taf issuance 
latest radar loop was showing a mesoscale convective vorticity 
lobe moving through northern Kansas. This feature will continue to 
track east this morning and may cause some showers and 
thunderstorms to develop over southeast Kansas. Otherwise...a weak 
middle level trough will remain in place across northern Kansas this 
afternoon and could serve as a focus for more shower and 
thunderstorm development across the Russell and Salina taf sites. 
Elsewhere...partly cloudy skies can be expected. 


Cox 


Previous discussion... /issued 325 am CDT Friday Jul 18 2008/ 


Synopsis... 
numerous thunderstorms and rain that have occurred over nearly all of c Kansas throughout the 
night have unleashed several S/se-moving outflow boundaries...thereby 
forcing synoptic front much further S to position described above. Thunderstorms and rain 
continue to develop/spread further S/southeast across much of SC Kansas and will no 
doubt pose problems for first 2 periods of this forecast. 


Discussion... 
with front draped in SW-NE manner across kict country thunderstorms and rain expected to 
persist over primarily c Kansas today and tonight. With GFS handling areal 
extent & magnitude of thunderstorms and rain this morning better than it's cohorts...am 
following this solution for all facets of forecast...especially today & 
tonight. Translation: pressing harder on pop & quantitative precipitation forecast throttles for today & 
tonight...especially across c Kansas where better aligned with very moist 
surface-850mb convergent axis & where highest precipitable waters (1.8-2.0 
inches) reside. However...fairly high 1 & 3 hour ffgs of 2.5-3.0 inches 
dictate "checking swing" on any flood/flash flood watches across c Kansas at 
this time...especially with front expected to lift NE this afternoon. As 
such best chances for thunderstorms and rain to shift NE tonight...targeting NC & NE Kansas as 
well as SC & southeast Nebraska. 


For this weekend broad upper-Deck Ridge gradually amplifies enabling hot & 
dry weather to return to the southern & Central Plains. Very conceivable that 
highs on Sat & sun will flirt with 100f across c & SC Kansas. 


For next week...appears any chances for thunderstorms and rain will remain NE of the kict 
neighborhood across eastern Nebraska...Iowa & northern MO...where an upper-deck trough 
moving southeast over these areas will push a cold front southeast into these areas 
Monday night. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Wichita-kict 89 73 96 73 / 60 40 0 0 
Hutchinson 87 71 97 72 / 40 50 0 0 
Newton 87 72 96 73 / 60 50 10 0 
Eldorado 88 73 95 72 / 60 40 0 0 
Winfield-kwld 91 72 95 73 / 30 30 0 0 
Russell 85 69 99 71 / 40 60 10 0 
Great Bend 86 70 98 71 / 40 50 10 0 
Salina 86 69 97 72 / 40 60 10 0 
McPherson 86 70 97 72 / 40 50 10 0 
Coffeyville 92 72 94 72 / 20 10 0 0 
Chanute 90 72 93 72 / 30 30 10 0 
Iola 90 72 93 72 / 40 30 10 0 
Parsons-kppf 90 72 93 72 / 30 20 0 0 


&& 


Ict watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 
&& 


$$