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fxus63 kgld 052341 
afdgld 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Goodland Kansas 
541 PM MDT Sat Jul 5 2008 


Short term... (tonight - tuesday) 
200 PM MDT Sat Jul 5 2008 


Intense surface heating combined with a weak shortwave moving across 
northeast Colorado appear to be sufficient for scattered 
thunderstorms lingering into this evening...mainly in Colorado. A 
better defined shortwave will approach from the northwest on 
Sunday...and very slowly move across the forecast area through 
Monday. A surface cold front will accompany the upper wave...further 
enhancing lift. The front gets hung up along the southeast portion 
of the forecast area late Sunday as it gradually weakens. Will carry 
Middle Range chance probability of precipitation both days with all of the lift and moisture 
around. Low level upslope flow will be well entrenched over the High 
Plains on Tuesday in the Post frontal environment. Although upper 
ridging will not be conducive to synoptic scale lift...it will allow 
strong surface heating to occur leading to at least a slight chance 
for thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening hours in weakly 
unstable atmosphere. 


Long term... (wednesday - saturday) 
200 PM MDT Sat Jul 5 2008 


Long term models suggest a pattern change will occur during this 
period. Northwest flow across the northern plains on Wednesday will 
buckle as strong disturbance settles into the Pacific northwest and 
Canadian rockies. This will cause the upper ridge over the Great 
Basin to retrograde. Meanwhile subtropical ridge will be building 
across the Gulf of Mexico and into Texas by the end of the period. 
This will set up a southwest flow between the two main features with 
a deep tropical connection from the Baja California into the southern 
rockies...in other words the Summer monsoon though a bit early. May 
see a break in precipitation chances as heights rise under shortwave 
ridging during the transition from northwest to southwest flow 
Thursday and Friday...but once the southwest flow is established there 
appear to be several embedded shortwave troughs poised to move 
across the area. 


24 
&& 


Aviation... 
517 PM MDT Sat Jul 5 2008 


For the 00z taf cycle...VFR conditions are expected to prevail 
for both kgld and kmck. Scattered-broken middle-upper level clouds can be 
expected through most of the taf period. A cold front is expected 
to move into the region around 18z...with those winds from the 
northeast being more gusty at kmck than kgld. 


Blm 
&& 


Gld watches/warnings/advisories... 
Kansas...none. 
NE...none. 
Colorado...none. 
&& 


$$