626 
fxus63 kgld 050800 
afdgld 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Goodland Kansas 
200 am MDT Sat Jul 5 2008 


Discussion...forecast concerns are temperatures and precipitation 
chances through the next several days. 


Today-tonight...a surface trough ahead of a Pacific cold front 
will enter the northwest corner of the forecast area late this 
afternoon continuing southeast tonight. High level cloudiness will 
gradually increase through the morning and afternoon hours ahead 
of this feature but not enough to impact afternoon temperature 
forecast which remains on track to be around 100-103 with middle 90s 
over the Flagler area. Convergence along the trough and increasing 
middle level moisture/strong middle level lapse rates and increasing jet 
support will support isolated high based inverted-v type storms 
over the far west where isolated probability of precipitation remain. Better moisture and 
lift remains across the west through northwest and north tonight 
so have kept probability of precipitation oriented in that fashion. 


Sunday-Sunday night...frontal boundary gets hung up generally 
near or slightly north of the Interstate Sunday afternoon and have 
trended toward the 21z sref winds which are somewhere in between 
the GFS and NAM frontal positions. Moisture in the 850-700 layer 
starts to increase on the backside of the surface low and when 
combined with middle level moisture overhead along with increasing 
upper jet support/low level convergence/middle level frontogenesis provide 
an increasing chance for thunderstorms with the best chance across 
western portions of Yuma and Kit Carson counties. For Sunday night 
a few disturbances will move across the area from the 
west/southwest as the upper high gets displaced to our southeast. 
This will provide a continued chance of precipitation through midnight 
across the northwest half of the area. After midnight things 
should quiet down with slight chance probability of precipitation across much of the area. 
Temperatures will be tricky with clouds and frontal position 
playing a role in just how hot or not it will get. Blending the 
850/2m/MOS guidance numbers shows temperatures in the middle/upper 
80s across the northwest to the middle 90s to near 100 elsewhere. 


Monday-Monday night...upper trough axis reaches the area from the 
northwest by 00z Tuesday slowly moving southeast overnight. 
Frontal boundary slowly pushes south as well. Combination of Post 
frontal moisture and orientation of upper trough to the front 
suggests pretty good chance of rain across much of the area during 
the afternoon and overnight hours. Temperatures again tricky with 
clouds and possible precipitation but for now have blended all available 
guidance and 850 temperatures to come up with middle 80s west to middle 90s 
east. 


Tuesday through Friday...no changes made. 


Ddt 


&& 


Aviation... 


For the 12z tafs...VFR through the period with only some middle and 
high level clouds expected. High based cb's will develop west of 
kgld by 21z or so gradually shifting east while moving northeast 
through 06z before dissipating through 12z. Due to the high based 
nature of the storms and 700mb temperatures around 17c coverage is 
only expected to be isolated to scattered at best. Winds generally 
from a south to southeast direction through the day with speeds in 
the 15g25kt range by late afternoon. Afterward variable at 6kts or 
so as possible convection and frontal position disrupt surface 
wind flow. 


Ddt 


&& 


Gld watches/warnings/advisories... 
Kansas...none. 
NE...none. 
Colorado...none. 
&& 


$$ 


Weather forecast office Goodland