414 
fxus63 ktop 300807 
afdtop 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Topeka Kansas 
307 am CDT Sat Aug 30 2008 


Discussion... 


Quiet weather for much of the region was observed early this 
morning. Aloft...a broad ridge of high pressure was evident over 
much of the western and central Continental U.S.. next weather making trough 
coming onshore in the Pacific northwest. Center of surface high was 
stationed over the southeast corner of Iowa and winds were calm 
across northeast Kansas. Scattered thunderstorms continue in the 
southeast corner of the state where a bit of convergence at 925mb 
and 850mb was noted. 


Today and tonight...winds will veer around to the south through the 
day as upper trough and surface low over the northern plains deepen and 
begin to slowly nudge the surface high eastward...and upper ridge 
amplifies. Continued dry conditions. Western edge of surface frontal 
boundary situated over Oklahoma will lift northward through 
western and central Kansas today. Better moisture looks to remain 
well south and west of the local area...and do not expect much to 
work back into eastern Kansas which will still be under the 
influence of the surface high. Highs today will be a degree or two 
warmer than observed Friday. 


Sunday through Monday...increasing southerly winds and moisture 
return will be the primary story for this time frame ahead of the 
trough. Models still depicting quantitative precipitation forecast Sunday as the residual southern 
boundary lifts back northward and moisture begins to filter back 
into the region. Little in the way of upper support...and expect 
anything that develops to be isolated. Therefore...will maintain dry 
forecast. 


No changes made beyond that...but attention will be focused on the 
trough and cold front approaching from the northwest...and remnants 
of Hurricane Gustav coming up from the Gulf...effectively 
sandwiching northeast Kansas between these two systems Tuesday. 
Wednesday...the European model (ecmwf) remains much more aggressive with the 
northward progression of Gustav and with the cold front 
southeastward...and joins the two systems over MO/KS/OK during the 
day Wednesday. Should this solution come to fruition...copious 
moisture could bring a significant amount of rain to the region. GFS 
stalls Gustav over Louisiana...leaving the cold front to be the 
primary weather maker locally. Will closely monitor over the next 
few days. 


&& 


Aviation... 


High pressure ridge to continue over northeast Kansas through the 
night and early Saturday before moving east. Light to calm winds 
will continue through 15z then become southeast near 8 kts. Skies 
will remain clear and there may be some patchy ground fog in the 
Kansas River Valley affecting kmhk and ktop. Thunderstorms will 
remain south of the taf sites in southern and western Kansas 
tonight and Saturday morning so did not add any mention in the taf 
forecast. 53 


&& 


Top watches/warnings/advisories...none. 


&& 


$$ 


Konop