547 
fxus63 kgld 212120 
afdgld 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Goodland Kansas 
220 PM MST Sat Nov 21 2009 


Discussion... 
200 PM MST Sat Nov 21 2009 


Tonight-Tuesday...12z models continue to advertise a low pressure 
system moving into northeast Wyoming/southeast Montana by 12z 
Monday...Nebraska and South Dakota by 00z Tuesday...Nebraska and 
Iowa by 12z Tuesday. The 12z UKMET is the only outlier with a 
secondary closed low over the gld/ddc forecast areas by 00z 
Tuesday and east central Kansas by 12z Tuesday. 12z GFS ensemble 
members also favor all but the UKMET solution. 


First issue will be stratus/fog/possible drizzle development 
tonight across the eastern 1/3 of the area. Previous forecast had 
this pretty well in hand and just a few adjustments made. 


General changes were to shift the probability of precipitation slightly further 
north/northeast Monday through Tuesday afternoon before ending the 
event after 18z Tuesday. Precipitation amounts will also be less 
given the expected track and snowfall amounts of an inch or so 
expected...mainly east of a McCook to Hill City line. 


Afternoon temperatures near normal Sunday before falling slightly 
below normal Monday as colder air moves in during the day. This 
trend continues into Tuesday. I did raise tuesdays temperatures 
given the adjusted track with a bit more sunshine expected and 
warmer 850/2m/MOS guidance numbers. 


As mentioned by previous shift...northwest winds will become quite 
strong Monday afternoon across the western 2/3 of the area as 
strong pressure gradient and good mixing exists. Low end Wind 
Advisory thresholds may be met with gusts to 45 miles per hour possible. 


Wednesday-Saturday...amplified upper pattern will limit warmup 
Wednesday with low pressure deepening near the Great Lakes and 
ridge axis west of The Divide. Warmer with above normal readings 
expected Thursday and especially Friday as the ridge...albeit 
flattening Friday moves over the area. For Saturday low pressure 
moves across the northern states pushing some cooler air into the 
area. Should see near normal temperatures. 


07 


&& 


Aviation... 
1044 am MST Sat Nov 21 2009 


For the 18z tafs...south winds brought low level moisture to central 
Kansas earlier this morning. The associated fog/stratus was just east 
of kmck. Expect similar conditions to occur after 03z tonight. Latest 
RUC model indicates that IFR conditions to be east of kmck. Otherwise... 
cirrus clouds will move over kgld/kmck. Surface trough will move east 
of the taf sites after 00z which will switch surface winds to the 
northwest. These downslope winds will also limit westward extent 
of low clouds/fog tonight. 


&& 


Gld watches/warnings/advisories... 
Kansas...none. 
NE...none. 
Colorado...none. 
&& 


$$