586 
fxus63 kict 182026 
afdict 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas 
326 PM CDT Friday Jul 18 2008 


Discussion... 
forecast challenges/concerns/highlights will be rain/thunderstorm 
chances this evening/tonight...and hot Summer weather returning by 
tomorrow. 


Latest satellite imagery and profiler data indicates a well defined 
mesoscale convective vortex (mcv) moving slowly east across 
northeast Kansas/southeast NE/northwest MO/southwest Iowa. This mesoscale convective vortex was 
formed from widespread thunderstorm activity across the area last 
night. Moist southwesterly subtropical inflow into this mesoscale convective vortex along 
with subtle low/mid-level confluence has aided off and on 
showers/embedded thunderstorms much of the day across 
southern/southeast/east-central Kansas. Meanwhile...a convectively 
enhanced front/outflow boundary was situated from eastern Kansas 
west-southwestward into southwest Kansas. Environment is 
characterized by high precipitable waters and relatively low 
instability. 


Challenging precipitation forecast tonight. Thinking 
scattered/numerous showers will continue to fester into the 
evening hours across south-central/east-central/southeast Kansas...but 
may tend to wane thereafter due to mesoscale convective vortex shifting east and 
low/mid-level confluence weakening. May see widely scattered 
thunderstorms developing along the surface front/outflow boundary 
within the next few hours...especially for areas that are able to 
break through the clouds and see some sun. With strengthening 
low-level jet tonight impinging on low-level boundary/baroclinic 
zone...thinking additional shower/thunderstorm activity could 
redevelop...especially across central Kansas after 10 PM or so...also 
being aided by approaching shortwave trough currently over the 
central rockies. One other possible scenario is High Plains 
thunderstorm activity this afternoon may congeal into an mesoscale convective system and 
approach central Kansas from the west/northwest late tonight. All in 
all...poor lapse rates owing to high precipitable waters along with 
weak shear will greatly limit instability and associated 
strong/severe potential. Although a few strong storms with gusty 
winds may be possible in the strongest cores...along with locally 
very heavy rainfall. 


Potentially a few lingering showers on Saturday morning in plume of 
middle-level moisture. Otherwise...anticipating temperatures warming 
quite a bit...as middle/upper subtropical ridge builds over the 
western/central Continental U.S.. 


For Monday and beyond...sided with the European model (ecmwf)...as it continues to 
build/linger a fairly Stout middle/upper ridge across the area. GFS 
seemed too quick to break the ridge down with weak/subtle 
shortwaves. Thinking ridge will be too tough to break down that 
easily. Consequently...kept forecast dry beyond tonight. 
However...this will need to be monitored by later shifts...as European model (ecmwf) 
model stalls a front/low-level confluence zone across northeast Kansas 
Tuesday and beyond...with the same area on the eastern edge of 
middle-level cap/elevated mixed layer. This pattern could favor 
scattered precipitation...so stay tuned. 


Otherwise...temperatures well into the 90s and even low 100s are 
likely this weekend through next week...as ridge builds over the 
area. 


Kleinsasser 


&& 


Aviation... 
18z tafs...ict/sln/hut/cnu/rsl...brief MVFR conditions have been 
occurring this morning with the heavier rain showers...but overall 
the precipitation will be on the wane. Given uncertainty of 
thunderstorms overnight...opted to only go cumulonimbus for now. 


Howerton 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Wichita-kict 71 94 74 98 / 50 10 0 0 
Hutchinson 69 95 74 100 / 40 10 10 0 
Newton 70 94 74 99 / 50 10 10 0 
Eldorado 72 93 74 97 / 50 10 0 0 
Winfield-kwld 72 93 74 97 / 40 10 0 0 
Russell 68 97 71 101 / 40 10 10 0 
Great Bend 68 97 72 101 / 40 10 10 0 
Salina 68 95 72 101 / 40 10 10 0 
McPherson 68 95 73 100 / 40 10 10 0 
Coffeyville 72 92 74 94 / 30 10 0 0 
Chanute 72 92 74 94 / 40 10 0 0 
Iola 72 91 74 94 / 40 10 0 0 
Parsons-kppf 72 92 74 94 / 30 10 0 0 


&& 


Ict watches/warnings/advisories...none. 


&& 


$$