935 
fxus63 kict 051114 
afdict 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Wichita Kansas 
613 am CDT Sat Jul 5 2008 


Update... 


&& 


Aviation...12z tafs [rsl/sln/hut/ict/cnu] 
850 Theta-E advection continues to generate scattered ts across eastern Kansas 
early this am. Will include a thunderstorms in the vicinity mention this am at sln/cnu sites 
based on latest radar trends. Activity may weaken/dissipate toward 
18z as low-level jet weakens/backs. Otherwise Lee troffing over 
High Plains will lead to southerly winds today-tonight with VFR 
conditions. 


Jmc 


&& 


Previous discussion... /issued 330 am CDT Sat Jul 5 2008/ 


Discussion... 
forecast highlights include thunderstorms chances this morning and 
this afternoon...and again Monday through Tuesday night. 


Glancing influence of upper Midwest shortwave in concert with modest 
850-700mb warm/moist advection has resulted in widely scattered 
thunderstorms early this morning across northeast Kansas and northeast 
OK. Given north/northwest flow aloft and modest south/southwest 
low-level jet...activity has the potential to move/develop south 
across eastern Kansas along low/mid-level thermal/moisture gradient this 
morning. Best thunderstorm chances this morning will be east of 
I-135. Thinking activity will likely remain below severe levels due 
to rather marginal instability. However...40-50 knots cloud-bearing 
shear may promote strong storms capable of dime size hail. 
Convective potential could linger through the morning hours. 


By this afternoon...strong heating in concert with increasing 
low-level moisture will result in a strongly unstable airmass. 
Models indicate a weak/subtle low-level confluence zone across 
central/eastern Kansas...on the backside of a departing surface 
high. Given degree of expected instability and weak capping...cannot 
rule out a few isolated thunderstorms this afternoon through early 
evening along this confluence zone. However...overall very weak 
forcing will preclude widespread development...although 30 kts of 
deep layer shear may promote isolated strong to marginally severe 
activity. 


The next meaningful chance for precipitation should arrive for 
Monday through Tuesday night...as a shortwave progressing across the 
northern plains drags an associated frontal boundary south across 
the Central Plains. Despite an unstable airmass...thinking threat 
for severe storms will be low with this front given relatively weak 
forcing and weak deep layer shear (brunt of strongest forcing/shear 
will remain north of the area). However...thinking strong/marginally 
severe storms will be possible...along with heavy rain. As is 
typically the fate of summertime frontal boundaries over the Central 
Plains...the front will likely stall and eventually wash 
out/dissipate across the area by Tuesday night/Wednesday. 


Temperatures will be quite warm today through Monday...as 
heights/thicknesses build and southerly flow increases. Highs will 
range from the upper 90s/near 100 over central/south-central 
Kansas...to low 90s/near 90 over eastern Kansas (due to higher 
dewpoints). The frontal boundary slated to affect the area early/middle 
week will likely lower temperatures some due to increased 
cloud-cover and lower 850mb temperatures behind the front. 


Kleinsasser 


Aviation... 
for the 06z taf suite...little change from previous 
forecast issuance. VFR conditions expected through the 
valid period. The light east to southeast winds tonight 
will become southerly and increase after sunrise on 
Saturday. Elevated instability to the northeast of a 
developing warm front across central Kansas...will result 
in widely scattered convection late tonight through early 
afternoon on Saturday. Though most of this activity is 
expected to remain just northeast of the area...have 
included thunderstorms in the vicinity for ksln and kcnu...where confidence is 
relatively higher than areas further west. 


Ked 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Wichita-kict 94 72 96 74 / 20 10 0 10 
Hutchinson 96 72 97 73 / 10 10 0 10 
Newton 94 72 96 74 / 20 10 0 10 
Eldorado 92 71 95 74 / 30 10 0 10 
Winfield-kwld 94 72 96 74 / 20 10 0 0 
Russell 97 70 99 72 / 10 10 10 10 
Great Bend 98 71 100 72 / 10 10 10 10 
Salina 96 72 97 73 / 20 10 10 10 
McPherson 95 72 97 73 / 20 10 10 10 
Coffeyville 88 72 92 73 / 30 10 0 0 
Chanute 88 71 91 73 / 30 10 0 0 
Iola 88 70 91 73 / 30 10 0 0 
Parsons-kppf 88 71 92 73 / 30 10 0 0 


&& 


Ict watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 
&& 


$$