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fxus63 kind 240619 
afdind 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Indianapolis in 
220 am EDT Thursday Jul 24 2008 


Discussion... 


Problem of day is when rain will return. 


No question about dry today as high that brought mild weather 
yesterday still controls things. Earlier thinking was mesoscale convective complex would form 
to our west overnight and bring rain to most of County Warning Area late tonight or 
Friday. Now that looks a lot less likely. Model solutions differ but 
more or less concur mesoscale convective complex may well form...but plunge to our south 
along thickness lines. 


I am not ready to buy the almost completely dry mav tonight and 
Friday. Even the GFS brings in some moisture that could lead to 
limited diurnal convection tomorrow. But I will use the met with its 
slight chance to chance probability of precipitation. 


Friday night met probability of precipitation climb sharply. Moisture patterns suggest NAM 
brings in another mesoscale convective complex. I am skeptical with both GFS and sref keeping 
action far to our south. So starting Friday night switch to chance mav 
probability of precipitation. With a little Luck...we will see precipitation end for at 
least a short period Saturday night. 


For temperatures today we will be slightly warmer than Wednesday because of 
modification...but not much warmer. Same basic air over US and wet 
ground. Met seems to capture this best. 


Mav looks too cold tonight considering what we have now and we will 
be on west side of high with weak warm advection. After that met and 
mav both near seasonal and consensus looks like it will work. 


&& 


Aviation...discussion for the 06z tafs 


High pressure continues to dominate the weather across Indiana...providing VFR 
conditions. Dew point temperatures in the lower and middle 50s were found 
across the taf sites and models suggest dew point depressions should 
remain more than 2f. However could not completely rule out some 
patchy MVFR br at huf and bmg where the dew point was in the upper 
50s. 


Any fog will burn off quickly on Thursday morning as heating resumes 
and VFR conditions will return. Cumulus rule and forecasst soundings 
suggest that some scattered cumulus will be possible. On Thursday night a warm 
front will approach from the SW and good isentropic lift begins after 
00z. This should result in some broken clouds...but ceilings will still be VFR. 


&& 




Ind watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 


$$ 


Aviation...jp 
public...kwiatkowski