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fxus63 kind 051019 
afdind 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Indianapolis in 
619 am EDT Sat Jul 5 2008 


Aviation...discussion for 12z tafs 


Upper trough will keep clouds across most taf sites through much of the 
day before scattering out this evening. Expect bmg to remain IFR for 
a couple of hours before returning to MVFR. Meanwhile other sites 
may bounce between VFR/MVFR for a few hours. Ind and huf should see 
cumulus development by 15z generating MVFR ceilings. Cumulus should lift and all 
sites be VFR by 17-19z or so. 


With scattering clouds tonight could be some fog development after 
05z. Later tafs can add if necessary. 


&& 


Discussion... 


Forecast focus on temperatures through early next week and next 
chance for rain. 


Current surface map shows surface fnt and weak low press over north Kentucky. 
High pressure centered over Michigan has cleared skies over 
locations north and west of our forecast area and also klaf and adjacent 
County area. 


Upper trough axis forecast by all models to sharpen some with trough axis 
pushing to Ohio River late today. Current stratus deck covering most 
of our counties should transition to broken then scattered cumulus as day wears on 
and subsidence begins to take over after upper trough axis passage. 
Somewhat drier air filtering in tonight should result in clear or 
mostly clear skies tonight. Current forecast temperatures for today and tonight 
looked very good. 


As surface high moves east...abundant sunshine and light srly flow should 
return area to normal temperatures Sunday. System across northern rockies at 
time pushes into upper MS valley sun evening and should begin to impact our 
area on Monday with at least a chance of precipitation in warm advetion. This 
wave weakens some by models as it moves into upper ridge. Stronger 
trailing trough and cold front move into upper MS valley early Tuesday. Models 
differ some on cold front timing and best precipitation chances but several runs now 
suggest late Tuesday into middle day Wednesday is our best threat period 
and probability of precipitation reflect this accordingly. Temperatures and humidity will 
return to normal middle Summer values by Monday and continue into 
Tuesday. Current forecast reflected this well and only minor adjustments 
were made. 


Models show front slipping south of Ohio River Wednesday night but some 
difference on its return along with precipitation chances with Euro suggesting 
Friday night next chance while GFS holds off until Sat night. 


&& 


Ind watches/warnings/advisories...none. 


&& 


$$ 


Aviation...cs 
public...dt