506 
fxus63 kpah 050815 
afdpah 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Paducah Kentucky 
315 am CDT Sat Jul 5 2008 


Discussion... 


Main challenges for tonight center on return of the moisture and if 
that will produce any convection when it does. Plus another weak 
front is expected by middle week. 


First...we have issued a dense fog advisory for some of our 
southern Illinois and southeast Missouri counties based on calls 
and AWOS numbers. Feel that this should mix out pretty quickly 
once the sun comes up. 


Delayed the slight chance of storms over southeast Missouri until 
later tonight as water vapor shows a lot of dry air moving into 
the area. Sref...GFS and European model (ecmwf) bring moisture back into our far 
western areas with middle to upper 30 k-index values suggesting some 
elevated convection after midnight. These conditions last into the 
day on Sunday...so introduced thunderstorms into the grids. 


Models do tend to agree that convection will be possible on 
Monday as plenty of low level moisture will be back into the area. 
Temperatures should be able to reach convective levels for at 
least scattered thunderstorms. 


By Monday night...the next front comes into the picture. Have 
modified thunderstorm areas to those along I-64 as the low level 
jet should be able to sustain convection north of US across 
portions of Missouri and central Illinois...and some of that may 
reach our northern sections. 


On Tuesday...the weak front slides into or near our County Warning Area. Very 
similar to what has happened over the past couple days. Moisture 
is plentiful...so scattered thunderstorms expected. Not ready to 
go with likely probability of precipitation on Wednesday...as with the last system...the 
probability of precipitation were a bit overdone. 


Very few changes made to temperatures. 


&& 


Aviation... 


Any potential for IFR/LIFR fog at kcgi will dissipate at or within 
an hour of 12z Saturday. However there may be a scattered deck 
between 2.5-3kft above ground level with a higher broken deck near 6kft through 
15z. Otherwise...VFR conditions should prevail through at least 06z 
for kcgi...when returning southerly flow brings a broken 5-7kft deck 
back after 08z Sunday. 


At kpah...a scattered to broken deck near 2.5kft above ground level level and any 
MVFR visibilities should thin by 15z...leaving a scattered to broken 
6kft above ground level ceiling through noon. Beyond 17z Saturday...conditions will 
be similar to kcgi. 


At kevv...a scattered to broken 3kft above ground level deck is possible through 
15z Saturday...but lower MVFR ceilings/visibilities may linger 
through 14z. Otherwise...VFR conditions should persist through the 
forecast period...with only a scattered to broken 7kft above ground level deck 
expected between 00-12z Sunday. These conditions should also apply 
to the kowb forecast area as well. 


This discussion reflects influence from 00-06z numerical guidance. 


&& 


Pah watches/warnings/advisories... 
Kentucky...none. 
MO...dense fog advisory until 12z for 
Bollinger...Cape Girardeau...Perry 
Illinois...dense fog advisory until 12z for 
Jefferson...Perry...Franklin... 
Hamilton...Jackson...Williamson...Saline...Union...Johnson. 
In...none. 


&& 


$$ 


Short term...Smith 
long term....ps 
aviation...Smith