646 
fxus65 kboi 050821 
afdboi 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Boise Idaho 
221 am MDT Sat Jul 5 2008 


Short term...today through Sunday...southwesterly flow aloft 
gives way to a weak mostly dry trough late Sunday. At the 
surface...a southeast to northwest pressure gradient will persist. The result 
is little change...light winds...and little precipitation. There 
will be isolated storms in the afternoons and evenings mainly over 
the west central mountains of SW Idaho...with Baker County Oregon 
and the Boise Mountains possibly seeing a storm as well. Highs will 
range from the lower 90s in the valleys to the 70s and 80s in the 
mountains both days. Lows will be mainly near 60 in the valleys and in 
the 40s and 50s in the mountains there will be plenty of sunshine to 
go around this weekend. 


Long term...Sunday night through Friday...models remain consistent 
keeping US under the influence of the northeast edge of an upper 
level ridge through Wednesday as it builds back inland. Guidance has 
been consistently lowering maximum temperatures for the first part of 
next week. In fact the latest mex was 3 degrees below our Monday maximum 
and 8 degrees below our Tuesday maximum. We adjusted our maximum 
temperatures downward both days but stayed with the warmer dgex for 
Tuesday. Apparently the cooler outlook is based on lower heights 
and higher surface pressures than anticipated...with the thermal 
trough staying well to our southwest in California. The ridge is 
expected to regain a little more amplitude Wednesday but not nearly 
enough for record highs...then Thursday and Friday the next 
approaching upper level trough will cool temperatures slightly and 
increase probability of precipitation to near climatology. 


&& 


Aviation...mostly VFR conditions will prevail through the weekend. 
Wildfire smoke will again produce local low VFR and MVFR 
visibilities early this morning. A shift in the flow to northwest on 
Sunday will help clear the smoke. Expect isolated thunderstorms over 
the west central and Boise Mountains this afternoon and tonight. 
Surface winds will be light northwest except stronger and gusty near 
thunderstorms. Winds aloft will be light to moderate westerly. 


&& 


Boi watches/warnings/advisories... 
Idaho...none. 
Or...none. 
&& 


$$ 


Weather.Gov/Boise 


Short term...snow pellets 
long term....jt 
aviation.....Jt