315 
fxus63 koax 071925 
afdoax 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Omaha/valley NE 
225 PM CDT Thursday Aug 7 2008 


Discussion... 


Main focus for convection remains south of the area at 19z along 
and north of a surface boundary stretching from Kansas into the 
northern Gulf Coast states. High pressure prevailed from the upper 
Midwest into eastern Nebraska. Latest models continue to break 
down the upper ridge in place across the western Continental U.S. During the 
weekend but offer different ideas in timing and strength of energy 
moving across the region. This results in scattered areas of 
convection over the plains region with low probability of precipitation used in the 
forecast to cover uncertainty in coverage across the area. 


Little change to temperatures through the forecast period with trend 
toward cooler met and FWC in the short term. 


Uncertainty continues in the extended portion of the forecast with strength 
and timing of short wave energy main issue in delineating precipitation as 
upper flow flattens in the west. Trended toward HPC guidance again today 
for the extended forecast due to variable model solutions. 


&& 


Aviation... 
for taf sites koma/klnk/kofk through 08/18z. 


Convection across Kansas this morning and early afternoon has left 
strands of middle to high clouds across much of southeast Nebraska. A 
small disturbance moving south out of the Dakotas into northeast Nebraska 
is aiding in the development of scattered low to middle clouds across 
northeast Nebraska...which could affect kofk early in the period. 
Ceilings and visibilities across all taf sites will not go below VFR 
conditions through the forecast cycle. Winds at all sites are expected to 
be light and generally out of the south. 




&& 


Oax watches/warnings/advisories... 
NE...none. 
Iowa...none. 
&& 


$$ 


Fobert/Mayes/Kurtz