626 
fxhw60 phfo 050628 
afdhfo 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Honolulu HI 
830 PM HST Friday Jul 4 2008 


Synopsis...light to moderate trade winds will prevail through the 
remainder of the Holiday weekend. The trades will carry clouds and 
showers mainly to windward areas...with a slight chance of light 
showers over leeward sections of some islands. 


&& 


Discussion...an upper tropospheric low is located near 19n 151w... 
or about 300 miles east southeast of Hilo. This feature has been 
shifting toward the west southwest at about 15 miles per hour. The GFS...European model (ecmwf) 
and NAM models all indicate the trade wind speeds will weaken 
slightly as this feature arrives in the vicinity of the islands by 
Sunday. In fact...24 hour pressure differences at reporting stations 
around the state are already hinting that sea level pressures are 
steady...or even falling slightly. If the trend continues in the 
model runs later tonight... there may be a need to reduce the 
forecast wind speeds for Sunday night into Tuesday. There is even a 
chance the trade winds may be weak enough to allow sea breeze 
circulations to develop over parts of some islands early next week. 


Otherwise...everything else appears to be on track with the previous 
forecast package. See no reason to make any major updates to the 
gridded or text products at this time. 


&& 


Previous discussion issued at 359 PM HST...clear skies this morning 
over much of the state have transitioned to partly to mostly cloudy 
skies with the advent of daytime heating providing the lift for 
afternoon clouds. Little rain has fallen over the state since last 
night and early this morning...with the exception of Kauai and Lee 
slopes of the kohala mts and volcanoes on The Big Island. Kauai has 
seen a steady stream of clouds and passing showers throughout the 
day as an east to West Line of showery low stratocumulus and cumulus 
move over the island. This line extends 300 miles to the east and 
will continue to bring scattered showers into the night. On the Lee 
slopes of The Big Island...elevated afternoon convection has spurred 
on showers as shown by the Waikii rain gage...located at 4 thousand 
feet on Mauna Kea...which measured 0.17 inches of rain. These 
elevated showers on The Big Island will likely dissipate as the 
island cools after sunset. 


A high pressure center is located about 850 miles northwest of Kauai 
this afternoon and its associated ridge extends east...north of 
the islands along 30 north latitude...into the east Pacific. High 
pressure and the ridge are expected to remain north of the islands 
providing light to moderate trades over the Holiday weekend and 
into next week. 


The majority of showers associated with the aforementioned line 
of clouds will stay north of Oahu and the rest of the state 
through the evening. However...scattered showers are still expected 
along the windward coasts and slopes with a slight chance of 
showers reaching leeward areas. 


Expect rather dry weather to continue into next week with most 
showers confined to windward slopes of the islands. There is a 
chance of mainly afternoon and early evening isolated showers over 
leeward sections of the islands... especially along the upslope 
areas of the leeward Big Island. None of this rain is expected to be 
heavy enough to put a real Dent in the rainfall deficits most areas 
are currently experiencing. 


&& 


Marine...winds in all marine zones are expected to remain below the 
Small Craft Advisory threshold into the middle of next week. Small 
background south swells will keep surf heights along the south 
facing shores of all islands well below the high surf advisory 
threshold. Elsewhere...small north and northwest swells will 
continue through the weekend. 


&& 


Fire weather...the dry weather pattern and light to moderate trade 
wind speeds will maintain the potential for dangerous wild fires 
this weekend...especially from Holiday fireworks. This wild fire 
hazard is particularly serious across parched fields and hillsides 
where dry vegetation continues to be a very potent fuel source for 
uncontrolled fires. Extreme caution should be used by anyone who is 
setting off fireworks. 


&& 


Hfo watches/warnings/advisories...none. 


&& 


$$ 
Discussion...Houston 
previous discussion...Morrison 
marine...Houston 
fire weather...Houston