950 
fxhw60 phfo 240816 aaa 
afdhfo 


Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Honolulu HI 
1015 PM HST Wednesday Jul 23 2008 


Update...we have updated the wind grids and coastal waters 
forecasts based on a recent scatterometer pass. The forecasts were 
adjusted to drop some zones included in the Small Craft Advisory and 
to extend Small Craft Advisory conditions through Friday night for 
windier areas. Rest of the forecast package remains the same. 


& 


Synopsis...a high far north of the islands will keep locally 
breezy trade winds blowing through Friday. Rainfall will be focused 
over windward areas...but some showers will spread leeward nights 
and mornings. There will be enough moisture around the islands to 
keep the weather a bit showery tonight...but the atmosphere will be 
stable enough to prevent any heavy showers. By Thursday morning... 
the atmosphere will be drier...and showers will decrease. Trade 
winds will weaken a bit over the weekend and moderate trades will 
continue through the middle of next week. 


&& 


Discussion... 
at 800 PM...a small cloud vortex associated with the remnant of 
tropical cyclone Elida was centered about 625 miles south southwest 
of Kauai. The system continues to move toward the west southwest and 
weaken. There may still be some low level moisture from the remnant 
of Elida around the main Hawaiian islands...but by tomorrow Elida 
will no longer be having any significant effect on island weather. 


A surface high far north northwest of the islands will dominate 
island weather for the next several days. At 800 PM the high was 
near 40n166w with a central pressure of 1032mb. The 24/00z GFS run 
shows the high moving east southeast to 39n161w and building to 
1034mb by Friday afternoon. Surprisingly...the GFS shows winds 
tapering off around the islands between now and Friday. The current 
forecast follows the GFS...but we will be updating the winds to keep 
locally breezy conditions through Friday evening. 


Starting Thursday morning...when the moisture from Elida will have 
moved away from the islands...the computer models show rather dry 
weather with little variation in rainfall through the middle of next 
week. There may be small-scale features that will produce wetter 
weather some days and drier weather on others but we probably will 
not be able to pick out such features very far in advance. We will 
forecast generally dry conditions and update the forecast when we 
can see something that will alter the pattern. 


&& 


Marine...winds will remain strong enough to warrant a Small Craft 
Advisory for some areas through Friday night. 


A new south swell has reached the islands. The surf along 
south-facing shores will increase overnight but is likely to remain 
below the advisory level of 8 feet. We will be watching the buoys 
overnight in case the swell is bigger than expected. 


&& 


Hfo watches/warnings/advisories... 
Small Craft Advisory tonight for Kauai northwest waters...Kauai 
Channel...Kaiwi Channel...Pailolo Channel...Maalaea Bay...Alenuihaha 
Channel and waters south of The Big Island. 


Small Craft Advisory Thursday through Friday night for Pailolo 
Channel...Maalaea Bay...Alenuihaha Channel and waters south of The 
Big Island. 


&& 


$$ 
Donaldson