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Area forecast discussion...update 
National Weather Service Peachtree City Georgia 
905 PM EDT Sat Jul 5 2008 


Update... 
will issue a quick update to reflect the rain-cooled air across 
central Georgia. Should not affect the overnight forecast min 
temperatures...but fog may be more of an issue because we're closer to 
saturation. NAM suggesting continued overnight convection in north 
Georgia. This seems reasonable as jet streak diving through MO in infrared 
satellite suggests continued favorable upper dynamics as short waves 
rotate through the trough. Will raise probability of precipitation slightly in north and back 
them down a bit in central Georgia for tonight. 


Short term /tonight through Monday night/... 
current satellite loop shows rain showers/thunderstorms and rain developing across central and 
south Georgia right along the main axis of moisture. These storms will 
most likely continue to move east through the state and continue 
through midnight to 2am. The main upper level through stays fairly 
stationary across the Kentucky/Ohio valleys through sun before sliding east 
Mon/Tue. This trough will continue to usher in upper level 
disturbances across Georgia/SC until its axis moves east of the region. 
With deep tropical moisture and diurnally driven instability indices 
developing everyday...should continue to see more isolated severe 
storms through the short term. Precipitable waters  are expected in the 1.50 to 2.00 
range with convective available potential energy around 1500 to 2000 and lifted indices around -2 to -5 both 
sun and Monday. The biggest threats over the next two days appears to 
be pea to penny size hail...lightning...and heavy rain. There is 
very little sheer so no real tornado threat exits. There will some 
gusty winds (30-40kt) with thunderstorm downburst. Temperatures should be 
very close to seasonal norms through the short term. 


Long term /Tuesday through Saturday/... 
the upper level ridge begins to weaken by Tuesday afternoon and moves 
off the middle Atlantic coast by 00z Wednesday. Once it moves through we get 
into a more zonal flow pattern. The models continue to show a nice 
plumb of moisture extending west to east across the region through Friday but 
weak upper level ridge begins to develop over the northern Gulf 
Thu/Fri. All in all we should gradually see less and less 
thunderstorm development from day to day as we go through day 7. 
Guidance temperature continue to advertise near seasonal normals 
through next week and see no reason to make any changes. 


&& 


Aviation... 
showers and thunderstorms across the area mainly over central and 
south Georgia. These storms should diminish by 04z with a few lingering 
on through 06z. The main upper level trough axis is still west of 
the area and not moving east too fast. This will keep the over all 
flow out of the west to SW through the taf period. Expecting winds in 
the 4-8kt range with higher gust in and around thunderstorms and rain development. 
With the storms around the area now...may see some patchy areas of 
fog overnight but not expecting visibilities to drop below 3sm. Ceilings 
will gradually lift and scatter out through 06z as rain showers/thunderstorms and rain 
diminish. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Athens 69 87 68 88 68 / 30 50 30 30 20 
Atlanta 69 86 69 87 70 / 30 40 30 30 20 
Blairsville 62 81 63 86 64 / 30 40 30 20 10 
Cartersville 66 87 64 91 67 / 30 40 20 20 10 
Columbus 72 88 71 90 72 / 30 60 30 50 30 
Gainesville 68 85 67 87 69 / 30 50 40 20 20 
Macon 70 89 69 91 71 / 40 50 30 40 30 
Rome 68 89 67 90 69 / 30 40 20 20 10 
Peachtree City 66 85 66 86 68 / 30 40 30 30 20 
Vidalia 71 90 70 88 71 / 50 60 40 60 40 


&& 


Ffc watches/warnings/advisories... 
none. 
&& 


$$ 


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