536 
fxus62 kjax 072354 
afdjax 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Jacksonville Florida 
221 PM EDT Thursday Aug 7 2008 


.Short term...Thunderstorms are quickly developing along and north 
of the I-10 corridor with some storms become severe. Should be a 
busy afternoon and early evening as convective temperatures have 
been reached coupled with approach of middle-level shortwaves...with 
concerns of damaging winds...hail...frequent cloud-to-ground lightning 
and localized heavy rainfall. Greatest coverage of thunderstorms 
the remainder of today is expected north of kgnv-ksgj line...with 
convection likely persisting well after sunset. 


Wet/unstable conditions are forecast for Friday as series of 
disturbances/shortwave troughs/ continue to carve a full scale 
trough over the eastern United States...forcing surface frontal 
boundary southward into the area. Have maintained likely probability of precipitation 
across the board due to moist tropical conditions interacting 
with myriad of lifting mechanisms. 


Conditions are forecast to slowly improve from the north Friday 
night in earnest as mean layer trough begins to work southward 
over the area...with northwest/drier/flow regime developing in its 
wake. Saturday...will continue north-S distribution of probability of precipitation... 
ranging from 10 percent or less north of U.S. Highway 82 in 
southeast Georgia to around 60 percent across Marion County and 
extreme southern sections of Putnam and Flagler counties where 
frontal boundary will likely reside. 


Sunday...dry conditions are forecast for areas mainly north of a 
kgnv-ksgj line. Will maintain low-end probability of precipitation for areas south of 
this line due to proximity to frontal boundary over north-central 
Florida...although deepening northwest flow regime will certainly 
limit coverage. 


Long term...return to summertime conditions early next week as 
southern extension of upper trough weakens with deepening 
southwest flow regime providing influx of moisture and 
instability. 


&& 


Aviation...upper trough will be approaching the area late today 
which should enhance the thunderstorms and rain potential over previous days. Current 
terminals include thunderstorms in the vicinity wording for this afternoon....but may need to 
include tempo groups as atmosphere is quite moist and unstable. Will 
defer inclusion of tempo groups until 18z package. 


&& 


Marine...southwest flow will be increasing over the next 36 to 48 
hours as surface trough approaches from the north. Still looks as 
though values will be largely below scec criteria although cannot 
rule out a brief period over the offshore portion Thursday night into 
Friday morning. Otherwise...winds will ease as trough slides through 
the waters by the latter half of the weekend. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
amg 74 90 69 92 / 30 60 30 10 
ssi 77 86 72 87 / 30 70 30 20 
jax 75 90 72 90 / 20 70 30 30 
sgj 76 87 72 86 / 20 60 30 40 
gnv 74 88 71 88 / 20 70 40 40 
ocf 74 88 72 87 / 20 70 40 60 


&& 


Jax watches/warnings/advisories... 
Florida...none. 
Georgia...none. 
Am...none. 


&& 


$$ 


Zappe/enyedi/