702 
fxus62 ktae 220126 
afdtae 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Tallahassee Florida 
830 PM EST Sat Nov 21 2009 


Discussion...the surface low was analyzed along the la coast 
southeast of New Orleans with the warm front extending eastward over 
our coastal waters at 00z. Local radars show rain with embedded 
showers and a few thunderstorms overspreading the region from 
southwest to northeast. All thunderstorms were currently offshore. 
The surface low is forecast to move to the northeast to a position 
around Mobile with the warm front lifting along or just north of the 
Florida/al/GA border by 12z Sunday. We will continue to watch for the 
possibility of a strong to briefly severe storm over the coastal 
waters and coastal Florida zones. Otherwise...most if not all zones 
should receive measurable rain through the overnight hours and will 
not be making any changes to the current forecast. 


Marine...the low pressure center will move inland west of our 
coastal waters overnight with the warm front lifting to the north by 
daybreak. Winds will swing around from the east a southerly 
component ahead of the associated cold front. Winds and seas have 
gradually increased the past few hours and may have to headline 
first period for scec conditions on the evening update. 


&& 


Aviation...rain and low ceilings moving into the region from the Gulf 
this evening. Ceilings expected to drop through the night...reaching 
MVFR everywhere by midnight. The low in the Gulf is forecast to 
rapidly fill overnight and become diffuse. This will serve to trap 
quite a bit of low level moisture across the area for Sunday. While 
the rain will come to an end by around middle morning...ceilings will 
remain MVFR to IFR through much of the day. 


&& 


Tae watches/warnings/advisories... 
Alabama...none. 
Georgia...none. 
Florida...none. 
GM...none. 


&& 


$$ 


Barry/Camp