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fxus62 kmlb 240827 
afdmlb 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Melbourne Florida 
427 am EDT Thursday Jul 24 2008 


Discussion... 


Today-tonight (day1)...upper high over Oklahoma/Nebraska builds 
across the southeast as troughing associated with an upper low 
over the eastern Great Lakes lifts northeast along the eastern 
Seaboard. Infrared satellite loop showing middle/upper level cloudiness 
thinning as trough axis clears the peninsula and divergent 
northwest flow aloft works its way down the southeast and Florida 
the next 24 hours. With cloud cover thinning during the 
day...there will be enough sun to heat up the atmosphere and a 
weak surface pressure gradient will allow the east and West Coast 
sea breezes to form...push inland and interact over the interior 
during the afternoon. Cooler temperatures aloft in the -8c to -9c 
range at 500mb...will help to steepen lapse rates setting the 
stage for the possibility of stronger storms middle to late 
afternoon. West to northwest steering flow behind the upper trough 
will tend to push storms toward the Atlantic with storms/residual 
light rain lingering into the late evening hours along the coast. 


Friday-Sat (day2-day3)...East Coast upper trough finally swings 
seaward reducing upper support for periodic disturbed weather 
while allowing convective pattern to be less complicated as 
compared to previous days. Surface ridge axis becomes more 
prevalent and established across the Central Peninsula during the 
period. Modest deep layer drying suggested...but with GFS and NAM 
models in apparent disagreement. Yet residual moisture and solar 
heating will easily fuel afternoon storms. Even so...probability of precipitation near 
climatology. Coverage likely favoring the interior but depends on 
exact location of axis...but all zones with scattered probability of precipitation. 




Sun-Wednesday (day4-day7)...extended forecast...period forecast finds 
another deepening East Coast trough scenario setting up with shortwave 
swinging by to the north. Concentration of a deep layer moisture 
ribbon across the north state area seems likely. Sufficient bump is 
applied to the low level ridge to nudge further south resulting in 
a south to southwest flow pattern for the forcast area. Resultant 
steering flow will tend to stack afternoon storms back toward the 
east central coast. 




&& 


Aviation...VFR conditions expected through 16z. MVFR with local IFR 
condition from 18z-24z in/near scattered lightning storms. VFR over 
the interior after 00z. Lingering showers will keep areas of MVFR 
conditions mainly along the coast through midnight local. 


&& 


Marine... 
Thursday-Thursday night...moderate offshore wind regime as ridge axis remains 
suppressed to the south. Afternoon sea breezes will briefly winds 
onshore near the coast but veer back to the southwest a few miles 
off the beach as the sea breeze component quickly weakens in the 
moderate southwest flow. 




***Note to mariners...buoy 41009 communication issues are being 
investigated by the National data buoy center.*** 


&& 




Preliminary point temps/pops... 
dab 88 71 89 74 / 50 20 40 20 
mco 90 72 93 73 / 50 20 50 20 
mlb 88 70 89 72 / 50 20 50 20 
vrb 88 70 90 71 / 50 20 50 20 


&& 


Mlb watches/warnings/advisories... 
Florida...none. 
Am...none. 
&& 


$$ 


Short term...rain shower 
long term....ds