302 
fxus64 kmob 212145 cca 
afdmob 


Area forecast discussion...corrected 
National Weather Service Mobile Alabama 
322 PM CST Sat Nov 21 2009 


Corrected aviation section 


Short term...(tonight through Monday night)occluded surface low 
about 100 miles south southeast of Lake Charles was tracking east to 
east North East and should remain just south of the Alabama coast 
through Sunday before weakening and drifting off to the north. Large 
envelope of mostly light to moderate rain north and northeast of the 
low will move across the area from this afternoon through the 
overnight. A few elevated...isolated thunderstorms possible later 
tonight as the low nears...more likely along the coast. Helicity 
values are quite high but will almost no cape...not expecting any 
strong storms unless the warm sector can manage to move onshore 
before the low passes. If this happens...some stronger storms 
possible mainly on the Panhandle coast late tonight. During the day 
Sunday the low will weaken as the upper support lifts out to the 
north and northeast and some light rain will linger over most of the 
area into the afternoon...possibly early evening over the northeast 
as the colder air aloft moves away. Will leave some clouds through 
the day Monday as low level cloudiness wraps around the departing 
surface low. High about normal for this time of year with slightly 
warmer overnight lows due to cloudiness. /11 


Long term...(tuesday through saturday)after what should be a sunny 
day Tuesday with temperatures in the low to middle 70s...another 
surface trough will move across the area Tuesday night. No rain in 
forecast at this time but will be a band of cloudiness moving east 
across the area Wednesday as high pressure rebuilds from the west. 
Upper low with this system is across the lower Great Lakes so the 
coldest air will be well north of the region but lows the last half 
of the week expected to be in the lower 40s to the upper 30s...new 
guidance was a bit lower but will wait a cycle before biting. /11 


&& 


Aviation...[18/00z issuance]...surface low pressure system moves 
east northeast across the Mississippi Sound Sunday morning. As the 
low eases closer...ceilings are forecast to lower to a blend of IFR/MVFR 
levels. Visibilities reduced to IFR levels in moderate rains later this evening. 
/10 


&& 


Marine...low pressure system positioned about 150 miles west 
southwest of Grand Isle Louisiana is forecast to ease east 
northeastward across southeast Louisiana/the Mississippi Sound 
Sunday morning. The low opens up...broadens and weakens as it 
continues east northeastward across the northern Gulf Coast Sunday. 
Latest gridded wind forecast calls for a moderate east - near 
shore...to southeast flow - well offshore tonight before winds take 
on a southwest component through the day Sunday. Will carry small 
craft caution headlines as gridded wind speeds meet criteria. Seas 
look to be higher beyond 20 miles out where the stronger fetch 
exists. With the low weakening and moving out...high pressure brings 
a light offshore flow and subsiding seas as we move into the new 
week. In the wake of a strong frontal passage late 
Tuesday...north/northwest winds are forecast to increase and seas 
will build Wednesday and Thursday. 
/10 


&& 


Fire weather...rain across the area late afternoon into Sunday 
morning. Heaviest rain expected to be along coastal areas. Winds 
generally northeast to east...may see some southeasterly winds along 
the Panhandle coast late tonight. Somewhat drier air by Sunday 
afternoon with still drier air on Monday but not expecting red flag 
conditions behind this system. /11 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Mobile 55 67 50 68 / 80 30 10 10 
Pensacola 58 68 53 67 / 90 40 10 10 
Destin 61 70 58 68 / 90 40 10 10 
Evergreen 52 65 47 67 / 90 60 20 10 
Waynesboro 52 62 47 67 / 90 40 10 10 
Camden 52 61 47 65 / 80 60 20 10 
Crestview 55 70 50 70 / 90 50 20 10 


&& 


Mob watches/warnings/advisories... 
Alabama...none. 
Florida...none. 
MS...none. 
GM...none. 
&& 


$$