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fxus62 ktae 071813 
afdtae 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Tallahassee Florida 
215 PM EDT Thursday Aug 07 2008 


Synopsis...despite an early start to the convection this morning 
and the extremely favorable thermodynamics...the more recent showers 
and storms have surprisingly remained quite weak and isolated in 
nature. With the light northwest low level flow...a somewhat later start to 
the sea breeze was expected...so still anticipate the showers and 
storms to become more numerous and intensify as the afternoon wears 
on. Based on earlier calculations of a cape over 4000 j/kg...an 
li=-7... a pw=2... should still be favorable for 
wet microbursts in the stronger storms. Over the coastal waters... 
winds continue out of the west-northwest around 10 kts...with the sea breeze 
expected to kick in near the coast shortly. 


&& 


Short term...once the convection gets going in full force later 
today...the main questions will be how long will the showers and 
storms linger into tonight...and will the current strong to severe 
storm threat last through the evening as well. Based on how quickly 
the upper trough to our northwest is digging to the southeast...currently believe we 
may see at least some strong convection linger well into the evening 
hours. This trough will continue its rapid southward push on Friday... 
which should give US a fairly distinct north-S pop gradient...before the 
much drier air takes full hold over the County Warning Area on Friday night and 
Saturday. Dewpoints could fall all the way into the middle 50s to lower 
60s by Saturday afternoon which should make for about as pleasant 
an August day as possible across our area. 


&& 


Long term...the period will start out dry with sun turning out to 
be a beautiful day for middle August by Florida standards. Of course...dry 
this time of year means hot temperatures in the afternoon...so after an 
unseasonably comfortable morning with temperatures in the middle to upper 60s, 
most inland areas will likely top out in the 92- to 95-degree range. 
An isolated ts cannot be ruled out Sun afternoon in our Florida 
zones...but most areas should stay dry. Moisture will creep upward 
for Monday as low to middle level flow becomes southwesterly. Slight chance probability of precipitation 
will return to the northern zones with low chance in the Florida zones. By 
Tuesday...low pressure is prognosticated to track across the Ohio Valley with 
yet another cold front in this Summer of fronts creeping southward across 
Dixie. The 00z GFS is slower than the 06/12z Euro to bring the low 
eastward and therefore a bit slower in settling the front to the S. 
Unlike this weekend's event...a clean frontal passage is not expected with 
this next front stalling out over our Florida zones in the Wednesday-Thursday time 
frame. Will keep probability of precipitation a bit higher S than north...and generally a bit 
above climatology for these two days. 


&& 


Marine...as the upper trough and associated surface cold front push 
southward towards the coastal waters...winds will increase out of 
the west and SW tonight and Friday...possibly nearing cautionary levels 
before the frontal passage. 


&& 


Aviation...scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will 
continue to develop across the area through the afternoon and 
evening today as a cold front approaches from the north. Some storms 
will be strong to severe with the main threats being wet microbursts 
and small hail. Wind gusts associated with the stronger storms may 
reach speeds up to around 40 to 60 knots...mainly this afternoon and 
early evening. These showers and storms will likely persist into the 
late evening hours and possibly into the late night hours as the 
front shifts farther south and closer to the forecast area. Through 
the evening hours on Friday...the rain chances will begin to 
decrease from north to south across the area. 


&& 


Fire weather...with the distinct possibility of surface dew points dropping 
sharply on Saturday...red flag conditions could materialize over 
parts of the County Warning Area. However...since it is still early in the game will 
hold off on a Fire Weather Watch until the middle shift. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Tallahassee 74 91 69 94 66 / 50 60 30 05 05 
Panama City 77 90 73 92 72 / 50 60 30 05 05 
Dothan 72 92 66 93 65 / 50 40 20 05 05 
Albany 72 93 67 94 66 / 50 40 20 05 05 
Valdosta 72 91 69 93 66 / 50 40 20 05 05 
Cross City 74 90 71 93 68 / 50 60 30 05 05 


&& 


Tae watches/warnings/advisories... 
Alabama...none. 
Georgia...none. 
Florida...none. 
GM...none. 


&& 


$$ 


Aviation/fire weather...Gibbs 
public/marine...Gould 
long term...wool