138 
fxus62 ktbw 051219 
afdtbw 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin Florida 
830 am EDT Sat Jul 5 2008 




Discussion...a rather quiet morning weatherwise over the County Warning Area with 
only a couple of middle level cloud bands approaching from the coastal 
waters. A large area of showers with embedded thunderstorms south of 
Louisiana...mostly over the central northern Gulf waters...is slowly 
moving east. Some convection is actually developing ahead of this 
area of disturbed weather and could reach the Florida Big Bend later 
this afternoon. So far there is no anticipation of this weather 
activity to spread into the Nature Coast counties...but the 
situation will be closely monitored in case adjustments to probability of precipitation for 
the northern counties become necessary. Models insists in low end 
probability of precipitation for today...but given the trends for sea breeze boundary 
convection of the past few days will keep scattered showers and 
thunderstorms today with best chances again over the interior 
areas. 


Current forecast package looks good and no significant changes will 
be made at this time. 


Previous synopsis... 


Synopsis...an upper ridge extended north over The Rockies and 
Western Plains while troughiness dominated much of the eastern U.S. 
At the surface...a stationary frontal boundary reached from the 
Southern Plains to New England. High pressure over the Atlantic 
ridged west across central Florida to the Gulf. 


&& 


Aviation...prevailing light and variable wind flow pattern this 
morning will become westerly this afternoon as surface heating 
induces a West Coast sea breeze circulation. High resolution WRF 
model data in phase with this development. Have included mention of 
thunderstorms in the vicinity across the terminals during the 23z-02z time frame for most of 
the terminals with the exception of pie where thunderstorms in the vicinity was inserted a 
little later during the 02-05z forecast as the East Coast sea breeze 
develops and interacts over the interior and gradually propagates 
toward the West Coast assisted by convective outflows. 


&& 


Marine...winds and seas expected to remain below highlight criteria 
through the forecast period. Only exception will be in the vicinity 
of thunderstorms...which will bring brief periods of rough seas and 
gusty winds. 


&& 


Tbw watches/warnings/advisories... 
Florida...none. 
Gulf waters...none. 
&& 


$$ 


Discussion...reynes 
aviation...lamarre