452 
fxus62 kmlb 051808 
afdmlb 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Melbourne Florida 
208 PM EDT Sat Jul 5 2008 




Discussion... 


Late afternoon-this evening...lightning storms resulting from east 
and West Coast sea breeze mergers over lake...inland Volusia... 
Seminole... Orange and Osceola counties will last from late 
afternoon into the early evening hours before winding down. Weak 
wind profiles and relatively cooler temperatures (-8c to -9c) aloft 
suggest slow moving storms with locally heavy rain...the possibility 
of small hail and some gusts to around 40 miles per hour in the stronger cells 
over the interior counties. Middle and upper level debris clouds will 
dissipate after midnight leaving partly cloudy skies. Proximity of 
the surface ridge axis will result in the winds becoming light/calm 
after midnight with light land breezes along the coast toward 
sunrise Sunday morning. Overnight lows around 70 and upper 60s in 
the cooler spots. 


Sunday...surface ridge axis remains over central Florida resulting 
in light winds in the morning giving way to easterly winds Cape 
Canaveral south as the overnight inversions erode and the sea breeze 
begins forming later morning. Mav MOS pop for Sunday look suspect 
with 80 percent but with steady feed of moisture from the south and 
mesoscale processes such as Sea/Lake breezes and outflow boundaries 
interacting with each other 60/likely over the interior late 
afternoon again looks reasonable and in line with past several days 
weather pattern. 


Mon-Fri...(previous discussion) anticyclone aloft will continue to 
build across the region with east-West Ridge axis becoming established 
near 30n latitude by late in the week. Deep layer moisture will 
gradually decrease during the week...especially middle-late week. 
Meanwhile...the surface ridge axis will lift slowly northward from 
the Central Peninsula early-middle week to the Northern Peninsula 
middle-late week. Light onshore wind regime with building heights aloft 
and gradually decreasing moisture levels suggest probability of precipitation lowering to 
climatology values of 30 percent coast and 40 percent inland. Favored 
convective period for coastal counties will be late morning through 
early afternoon...then greatest chance across the interior during 
the middle-late afternoon. Temperatures near climatology. 


&& 


Aviation...MVFR/IFR in/near scattered...some strong...late 
afternoon lightning storms over the interior becoming VFR after 
midnight. Same for Sunday afternoon. 


&& 


Marine...sea breeze influence wears off by middle evening. Brief 
period of light winds as the mean flow transitions back to the 
offshore/southwest direction after midnight. Look for sea breezes to 
kick in again late Sunday morning. Winds remain 10kt or lower and 
seas at or below 3 feet (except some 10-15kt and 4 feet well offshore) through 
middle week. Wind component backing a bit from S-southeast to more east-southeast as 
ridge axis lifts northward. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
dab 70 88 74 90 / 30 50 30 50 
mco 72 91 73 91 / 30 50 30 50 
mlb 71 87 75 90 / 20 50 20 50 
vrb 72 87 75 89 / 20 50 20 50 


&& 


Mlb watches/warnings/advisories... 
Florida...none. 
Am...none. 


&& 


$$ 


Wimmer/glitto