038 
fxus62 kmfl 220134 aab 
afdmfl 


Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Miami Florida 
834 PM EST Sat Nov 21 2009 


Update... 
a few showers developed over the western interior areas of South 
Florida this afternoon along the West Coast sea breeze. These showers 
have dissipated this evening...due to the loss heating of the 
day...and high pressure building into the County Warning Area from the western 
Atlantic waters. The weather should remain dry for rest of the 
night over Mainland South Florida...as high pressure should remain 
over South Florida. So will remove the pop wording for the 
Mainland areas of South Florida in the evening update for tonight. 


The Atlantic and Gulf waters could still see a shower or two 
tonight...as the land breezes will set up over the Mainland and 
push into South Florida waters. So will continue with the slight 
chance of showers for the Atlantic and Gulf waters for tonight. 


High clouds have also worked into South Florida from the Gulf of 
Mexico this evening and should continue to work into the County Warning Area 
overnight...as low pressure over the northern central Gulf of 
Mexico moves northeast towards the western Florida Panhandle. So 
the fog formation should be less tonight over the County Warning Area. 
Therefore...will continue the patchy fog wording for the interior 
and West Coast metropolitan areas for late tonight. 


The northeast swells of 2 to 3 feet are still occurring over the 
Palm Beach Atlantic waters this evening...and should continue 
through rest of tonight. So will continue to mention this in the 
marine zones evening update for the Palm Beach waters along with a 
moderate risk of rip currents along the beaches of Palm Beach 
County in the evening severe weather potential statement update. 


Rest of the forecast looks good at this time and no other changes 
are plan. 


&& 
Update...54/bnb 




Previous discussion... /issued 637 PM EST Sat Nov 21 2009/ 


Aviation...VFR conditions expected through Sunday. Started winds 
light at 5 kts or less and started the southeast sea breeze at the 
east terminals around 15z and a south-southwest sea breeze at kapf around 19z. No 
mention of vcsh. 


&& 


Previous discussion... /issued 202 PM EST Sat Nov 21 2009/ 


Short term...tonight through Monday...developing low over northwest Gulf 
of mex off Texas/la coast will move NE through this period. Although 
most energy with best upper dynamics will remain well north of the 
area...associated cold front should move to north-central Florida by 
Monday morning. At this point the deep layer flow should become 
more parallel to the surface boundary with the front loosing steam and 
stalling over central Florida. This will keep South Florida under 
a warm juicy southwest flow on the south side of the system. This 
will result in a gradual increase in clouds and chances of rain 
both Sunday and Monday. Temperature-wise...although SW flow usually 
yields warmer temperatures over eastern areas...will keep afternoon maximum temperatures just 
few degrees above seasonal values since increased cloud cover will 
limit sunshine both Sunday and Monday. 


Long term...Tuesday through Saturday...this portion of the 
forecast is more complicated due to the frontal system remaining 
close to the local area. The front is expected to slowly slide Dow 
the peninsula to the Lake Okeechobee area by Tuesday night. GFS 
seems to be suffering of a serious case of convective feedback as 
indicated by the precipitation/Omega field and tries to develop a series 
of surface lows along the boundary keeping the local area under 
the threat of heavy rain. Believe GFS is overdoing it and so will not 
go higher than low scattered probability of precipitation through this period. A rather vigorous 
short wave will dig south across the Central Plains Wednesday 
night through Friday resulting in a long wave trough amplifying 
over the eastern half of the country. This will give a strong enough 
push to the front to finally move south of the local area by 
Friday. A strong surface high of mixed origin (pacific/arctic) will 
then move south to East Texas with moderate to strong northwest flow 
advecting, not only lower temps, but also drier air down the 
peninsula Friday night and Saturday. 


Marine...surface winds should remain mainly east/southeast through most of the 
forecast period as the frontal boundary remains just north of the 
local waters. A small NE swell (2 to 3 feet) will continue to 
affect the northern Atlantic waters through Monday night resulting 
in an increased risk of rip currents along the Atlantic beaches of 
Palm Beach County. Seas will remain at or below 4 feet but may 
increase above that Thursday as the cold front begins to move 
south with northwest winds increasing in speed behind it. 


Fire weather...no problems expected through Thursday, however much 
drier air is expected to spread south across South Florida by 
Friday and Saturday. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
West Palm Beach 70 83 70 84 / 10 20 30 40 
Fort Lauderdale 73 83 73 82 / 10 20 20 30 
Miami 72 85 72 84 / 10 20 20 30 
Naples 69 83 70 83 / 10 20 30 30 


&& 


Mfl watches/warnings/advisories... 
Florida...none. 
Am...none. 
GM...none. 
&& 


$$ 


Long term...47/rhg 
short term/aviation...17/era