634 
fxus64 kmob 240326 
afdmob 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Mobile Alabama 
1030 PM CDT Wednesday Jul 23 2008 


Update...package updated to clean up evening wording and reduce 
probability of precipitation down for the rest of the evening. Am hesitant to take the probability of precipitation 
out entirely at this time...with light showers continuing to hag in 
over/near the forecast area. 


16 


&& 


Short term (tonight through saturday)...a strong shortwave rotates 
through the upper trough over the northeast states with an associated 
surface low sending a weak trailing front into the area which stalls 
over central Alabama and Mississippi overnight. The boundary 
dissipates by Friday night while surface ridging building over the 
northern Gulf promotes a light daytime onshore flow and offshore 
flow at night. The light onshore flow each day will promote a 
somewhat progressive sea breeze front while deep layer moisture 
increases to a very soupy precipitable water value of 2.3 to 2.5 
inches on Saturday. The presence of the weak front and the sea 
breeze will support chance probability of precipitation through Saturday for mainly the 
daytime hours while the increasing deep layer moisture suggests an 
trend towards higher quantitative precipitation forecast amounts. Temperatures will be slightly 
above seasonable levels on Friday then taper to seasonable levels by 
Saturday. /29 


&& 


Long term (sunday through wednesday)...another series of shortwaves 
move through the upper trough over the northeast states with a similar 
repeat of a weak trough settling into the deep southeast states. The 
remnants of Dolly are absorbed into the westerlies and moves across 
the middle Mississippi River valley and Tennessee area Monday through 
Wednesday while deep layer ridging builds over the western states. 
With the surface ridging over the northern to central Gulf 
continuing to support the light onshore flow during the day...a sea 
breeze will develop each day as temperatures remain near or just 
above seasonable levels. The weak front initially provides for 
better coverage inland on Sunday then the vestiges of 
Dolly...manifesting as a series of shortwaves...perform a similar 
function through the remainder of the period. All in 
all...scattered convection develops each day and lingers into the 
evening hours with abundant deep layer moisture remaining over the 
region supporting the potential for moderately high quantitative precipitation forecast with the 
storms. /29 


&& 


Marine...surface high pressure will continue across the 
northeastern Gulf through late week. A weak boundary will approach 
the area on Friday. Surface high pressure along with a diffuse 
boundary over the marine area will result in an onshore flow in the 
afternoon and early evening hours...and an offshore flow at night 
and during the early morning. Expect sea heights and swell periods 
to continue to decrease tonight as Hurricane Dolly moves farther 
inland over south Texas and weakens. Seas will generally be 1 to 3 
feet through early next week. 04/kc 


&& 


Aviation...brief periods of MVFR conditions due to scattered to 
numerous convection primarily in the afternoon and evening hours on 
Wednesday. Otherwise...VFR conditions should prevail through next 
24 hours. 04/kc 


&& 


Fire weather...no concerns. /29 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Mobile 72 93 75 92 / 20 30 20 40 
Pensacola 75 91 75 90 / 20 30 20 40 
Destin 76 90 76 89 / 30 30 20 40 
Evergreen 70 91 71 92 / 30 30 20 40 
Waynesboro 69 93 70 93 / 30 30 20 40 
Camden 69 93 71 93 / 30 30 20 40 


&& 


Mob watches/warnings/advisories... 
Alabama...none. 
Florida...none. 
MS...none. 
GM...none. 
&& 


$$ 


29 Eversole 
04 caceres