893 
fxus62 kmfl 212337 
afdmfl 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Miami Florida 
637 PM EST Sat Nov 21 2009 


Aviation...VFR conditions expected through Sunday. Started winds 
light at 5 kts or less and started the southeast seabreeze at the 
east terminals around 15z and a south-southwest seabreeze at kapf around 19z. No 
mention of vcsh. 


&& 


Previous discussion... /issued 202 PM EST Sat Nov 21 2009/ 


Short term...tonight through Monday...developing low over northwest Gulf 
of mex off Texas/la coast will move NE through this period. Although 
most energy with best upper dynamics will remain well north of the 
area...associated cold front should move to north-central Florida by 
Monday morning. At this point the deep layer flow should become 
more parallel to the surface boundary with the front loosing steam and 
stalling over central Florida. This will keep South Florida under 
a warm juicy southwest flow on the south side of the system. This 
will result in a gradual increase in clouds and chances of rain 
both Sunday and Monday. Temperature-wise...although SW flow usually 
yields warmer temperatures over eastern areas...will keep afternoon maximum temperatures just 
few degrees above seasonal values since increased cloud cover will 
limit sunshine both Sunday and Monday. 


Long term...Tuesday through Saturday...this portion of the 
forecast is more complicated due to the frontal system remaining 
close to the local area. The front is expected to slowly slide Dow 
the peninsula to the Lake Okeechobee area by Tuesday night. GFS 
seems to be suffering of a serious case of convective feedback as 
indicated by the precipitation/Omega field and tries to develop a series 
of surface lows along the boundary keeping the local area under 
the threat of heavy rain. Believe GFS is overdoing it and so will not 
go higher than low scattered probability of precipitation through this period. A rather vigorous 
short wave will dig south across the Central Plains Wednesday 
night through Friday resulting in a long wave trough amplifying 
over the eastern half of the country. This will give a strong enough 
push to the front to finally move south of the local area by 
Friday. A strong surface high of mixed origin (pacific/arctic) will 
then move south to East Texas with moderate to strong northwest flow 
advecting, not only lower temps, but also drier air down the 
peninsula Friday night and Saturday. 


Marine...surface winds should remain mainly east/southeast through most of the 
forecast period as the frontal boundary remains just north of the 
local waters. A small NE swell (2 to 3 feet) will continue to 
affect the northern Atlantic waters through Monday night resulting 
in an increased risk of rip currents along the Atlantic beaches of 
Palm Beach County. Seas will remain at or below 4 feet but may 
increase above that Thursday as the cold front begins to move 
south with northwest winds increasing in speed behind it. 


Fire weather...no problems expected through Thursday, however much 
drier air is expected to spread south across South Florida by 
Friday and Saturday. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
West Palm Beach 70 83 70 84 / 20 20 30 40 
Fort Lauderdale 73 83 73 82 / 20 20 20 30 
Miami 72 85 72 84 / 20 20 20 30 
Naples 69 83 70 83 / 20 20 30 30 


&& 


Mfl watches/warnings/advisories... 
Florida...none. 
Am...none. 
GM...none. 
&& 


$$ 


Long term...54/bnb 
short term/aviation...18/gr