497 
fxus62 kmfl 072320 
afdmfl 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Miami Florida 
720 PM EDT Thursday Aug 7 2008 


Aviation...VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours with light 
wind flow less than 5 knots after 01z this evening with all convection 
remaining over interior S fla. Westerly flow will set up on Friday 
and a sea breeze is unlikely on the east CST with scattered convection 
developing after 15z interior sections then moving towards the east 
CST. However, not expecting widespread activity and have only 
placed thunderstorms in the vicinity in the east CST terminals. 


30/kob 




&& 


Previous discussion... /issued 226 PM EDT Thursday Aug 7 2008/ 


.East Coast metropolitan areas could see near record highs Friday followed 
by wetter conditions this weekend... 


Discussion... 
the ridge of high pressure over the County Warning Area will continue to move 
slowly south into the Florida Keys tonight keeping the steering 
flow light over the County Warning Area this afternoon into tonight. Both the east 
and West Coast sea breezes were developing early this afternoon 
along with isolated showers and thunderstorms along the sea 
breezes. The sea breezes should continue to develop and push 
inland through the afternoon and evening hours...as the showers 
and thunderstorms continue to develop along the sea breezes. So 
have kept the scattered probability of precipitation for the interior areas this afternoon 
before going isolated for the evening hours. For the metropolitan 
areas...have kept isolated probability of precipitation through the evening hours. 


The ridge of high pressure will remain over the Florida Keys this 
weekend...as the unusually deep trough of low pressure remain over 
the eastern United States. At the same time...the weak tropical 
wave over the central Bahama Islands will also continue to 
dissipate tonight into Friday...as it moves slowly toward South 
Florida. This will keep the steering flow from the southwest over 
the County Warning Area this weekend focusing the highest probability of precipitation over the East Coast 
metropolitan areas. However...the drier air on the west side of the 
tropical wave and the drier air over North Florida will be over 
South Florida on Friday. So probability of precipitation on Friday will be in the 30 to 4o 
percent range...while the weekend will be in the 40 to 50 percent 
range. 


With the southwest wind flow and the lower probability of precipitation on Friday...the 
high temperatures along the East Coast metropolitan areas could get close 
to the record highs which are: 


Forecast high record highs 
mia 94 95 - 1956 
fll 93 97 - 1956 
pbi 94 96 - 1970 
mbf 92 93 - 1983 


So will mention near record highs for the East Coast metropolitan areas for Friday. 


Extended forecast... 
the ridge of high pressure will remain over the Florida Keys early 
to middle of next week...as the deep trough of low pressure 
remains over the eastern United States. This will allow for a weak 
cold front over the Tennessee Valley to move south into central 
Florida early next week before stalling out. Therefore...the 
steering flow over South Florida will remain in a southwest flow 
focusing the highest probability of precipitation over the East Coast metropolitan areas each day. 


The deep trough of low pressure will then break down late next 
week allowing for the ridge of high pressure to move back north 
into central Florida. This will allow for the steering flow to 
shift back to a southerly flow...and focus the highest probability of precipitation over 
the Lake Okeechobee area late next week. 


Marine... 
the winds over South Florida waters will be southwest this weekend 
into early next week with speeds below 10 knots. This will keep 
the seas below 2 feet this weekend into early next week. So 
boating should be good outside of the showers and thunderstorms 
each day. 


Fire weather... 
the relative humidities will remain above the critical value of 35 
percent this weekend into early next week. However...they could 
fall down into the 40s this weekend into early next week over the 
East Coast metropolitan areas. So at this time do not see any problems 
with the fire weather for South Florida this weekend into early 
next week. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
West Palm Beach 76 94 74 93 / 20 40 20 50 
Fort Lauderdale 79 93 76 92 / 20 40 20 50 
Miami 79 94 77 93 / 20 40 20 50 
Naples 77 90 77 89 / 20 30 20 40 


&& 


Mfl watches/warnings/advisories... 
Florida...none. 
Am...none. 
GM...none. 
&& 


$$