022 
fxus62 kmfl 211937 
afdmfl 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Miami Florida 
337 PM EDT Thursday Aug 21 2008 


Discussion...as of 2 PM EDT...the center of Tropical Storm Fay 
was beginning to cross the coast near Flagler Beach. NHC forecasts 
Fay to move west-northwest across North Florida over the next several 
days...finally exiting Florida on Sunday. The forecast is status quo 
from the previous few days...with deep tropical moisture remaining 
in place across the area with precipitable waters  in the 2.1-2.5 inch range 
through the weekend. Activity over land tonight will be on the 
decrease...but numerous showers/isolated storms in bands are 
expected to even become more defined over the local Gulf/Atlantic 
waters overnight. These bands will move/develop inland after 
sunrise on Friday...so went with likely probability of precipitation all areas Friday. Low 
level winds will continue strong enough on Friday to support gusty 
winds of 40 to 50 miles per hour in the stronger showers/storms. 


On Saturday...as Fay moves further northwest of the area...the wind 
fields will lighten up. This is expected to provide for excellent 
convergence across the area...as sea breezes likely will develop 
on both coasts. Precipitable waters  will remain very high...and with good 
heating expected early on in the day...this will set the stage for 
an active day. Decided to go above guidance probability of precipitation given these 
factors. Believe that Saturday poses the most risk for locally 
heavy rainfall for interior areas...but still possible tomorrow. 
Sunday will be similar with light wind flow/deep moisture so added 
likely probability of precipitation for inland areas. 


Made no changes beyond Sunday as models continue to show a 
decreasing moisture/pop trend...so stayed close to climatology probability of precipitation. 


&& 


Hydrology...Flood Warning continues in effect for Glades/Hendry 
counties until 945 PM EDT...but this could be extended in time 
based on updated information during the evening. HPC quantitative precipitation forecast tonight through 
Saturday depicts an areal Ave of approx 1.5-2.50 inches across 
Glades/Hendry counties...with 2.0-2.70 Collier County...and 
lesser amounts south and along the Atlantic coast of 0.5-1.5 inches. 
Of course locally higher amounts are possible if a heavy rainband 
sets up anywhere. It looks like Saturday poses the highest risk 
of locally heavy rainfall for Glades/Hendry counties where 
flooding is ongoing...as this is when there will be sea breeze 
interactions to add to the convergence southeast of Fay. 


&& 


Marine...neither GFS nor NAM have a handle on Fay...with 
pressures too high...so the surface winds on both models have been 
too low. Have adjusted winds up based on this fact. Updated the 
coastal waters forecast a few hours ago to include a small craft advection for all of the 
local waters until 8 PM EDT. Winds should subside into the 15-20 
knots range overnight through Friday...with winds subsiding 
drastically over the upcoming weekend. The heaviest showers/storms 
will continue to be capable of producing strong gusty winds of 35 
to 45 knots through Friday. 


&& 


Fire weather...no concerns. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
West Palm Beach 75 87 76 88 / 50 70 40 60 
Fort Lauderdale 75 88 76 88 / 50 70 40 60 
Miami 76 88 77 88 / 50 70 40 60 
Naples 78 87 77 89 / 50 70 50 60 


&& 


Mfl watches/warnings/advisories... 
Florida...none. 
Am...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for amz610- 
amz630-amz650-amz651-amz670-amz671. 


GM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for gmz656- 
gmz657-gmz676. 


&& 


$$ 


Long term...57/dg 
short term/aviation...65/gs