086 
fxus62 ktae 211912 
afdtae 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Tallahassee Florida 
212 PM EST Sat Nov 21 2009 


Short term (tonight-Monday night)... 
models are in agreement over the next couple of days and show the 
upper low currently centered over the Texas/la line tracking northeast 
across the region and opening up into a wave. At the surface...the 
occluded low centered just south of the la coast will continue on a 
east-northeast track along the central Gulf Coast...then inland around Mobile 
through the day Sunday. Models all show this low filling through 
this time as it tracks over southeast Alabama and into Georgia Monday. 


Recent radar loop showed a fairly large area of mainly light rain 
with some embedded heavier showers spreading northeast over la/southern 
MS/Alabama north of the warm front. Expect this to spread over the 
Panhandle and into our SW Georgia counties over the course of the 
overnight period and into Sunday as this low/warm front approach. 
This slower track of this system moving over the area will keep the 
rain chances up across much of the area through the day 
Sunday...then gradually clearing from west to east through the 
remainder of the short-term period. The best chance for stronger 
storms will remain closer to the coastal areas and over the adjacent 
coastal waters later tonight where sufficient low/deep layer 
shear and instability will be. Rain chances will trend down from 
west to east Sunday night into Monday. Total rainfall 
accumulations should remain around an inch through this time with 
some locally higher amounts possible. 


Long term (monday night through saturday)... 
significant differences remain between the GFS and the European model (ecmwf) through 
the middle of the week with respect to the development of another 
low in the Gulf of Mexico...and the resulting potential impacts of 
clouds and possible precipitation across the tri-state area. As a 
result...overall confidence in that portion of the forecast 
remains lower. However the latest European model (ecmwf) has trended toward a 
slightly more southern development while the GFS has trended 
slightly northward. Will go with a blend as basic guidance...and 
lean towards the GFS solution for consistency...holding on to more 
clouds through Wednesday night and adjusting temperatures 
accordingly. As the second low moves east toward the end of the 
week...both models show high pressure and cooler drier air 
spreading eastward across the area through the remainder of the 
forecast period. Will show temperatures starting out above 
normal...then trending downward to near normal through the middle 
of the week...and below normal by the end of the week. 


&& 


Marine...low pressure will track east along the central Gulf Coast 
tonight into Sunday...then northeast and inland over or around 
Mobile through the day Sunday. Winds will veer toward the south 
ahead of the cold front tonight into Sunday...then west northwest 
behind the front Sunday night into Monday. Winds and seas will 
increase through this period as this system moves through the area. 
A period or two with exercise caution headlines will remain possible 
tonight through Sunday due to increasing wind and seas. Rain chances 
will remain up tonight through Sunday...then trend down into the 
first of the upcoming week. 


&& 


Aviation...expect lowering ceilings by late afternoon from west to 
east as low pressure system progresses into area. Overnight... 
expect IFR to LIFR conditions with rain...low ceilings and fog. Some 
thunderstorms and rain possible at tlh overnight. Gradually improving conditions during 
day on Sunday. 


&& 


Fire weather...no concerns over the next couple of days. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Tallahassee 57 71 52 72 49 / 80 70 20 10 10 
Panama City 60 73 55 70 51 / 80 40 10 10 10 
Dothan 54 61 48 65 46 / 80 50 10 10 10 
Albany 54 61 49 66 47 / 80 70 20 10 10 
Valdosta 57 66 52 71 49 / 80 70 30 10 10 
Cross City 61 76 56 76 52 / 80 70 30 10 10 
Apalachicola 62 74 57 71 53 / 80 60 10 10 10 


&& 


Tae watches/warnings/advisories... 
Alabama...none. 
Georgia...none. 
Florida...none. 
GM...none. 
&& 


$$ 


Ag/pd/bg