068 
fxus62 kmlb 181829 
afdmlb 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Melbourne Florida 
225 PM EDT Friday Jul 18 2008 


Discussion... 


..much lower rain chances beginning this weekend... 


Current-tonight...distinctive convergent line noted on visible 
satellite imagery from Pasco County in west central Florida through 
northern Brevard County early this afternoon. Recently widely 
scattered showers and isolated lightning storms have formed in the 
vicinity of this feature. Movement is northward at around 15 miles per hour. A 
few more breaks in the cloud cover are now being observed over 
northern areas while more sunshine is still noted further southward. 
Temperatures early this afternoon have ranged from lower 80s north 
and lower 90s south. Will opt for a pre-first period in the zones 
again with higher scattered coverage north and lower coverage 
southward until around sunset. Still will monitor southward later 
this afternoon for sea Breeze/Lake Okeechobee boundary interactions 
for convection. A few storms could contain frequent lightning along 
with heavy downpours with isolated urban flooding in prone areas. 
Recent kxmr sounding suggest a microburst potential from a few cells 
as well and this will have to be monitored. Showery activity will 
taper off again this evening ending lastly north with light rain 
showers where moisture remains deepest and low-level convergence 
greatest. 


Low pressure spinning off of the Georgia/South Carolina coasts 
expected to continue to make very slow progress northward over the 
next 24 hours. Overnight high pressure ridging will begin to 
strengthen gradually over the southern peninsula as some drier air 
infiltrates into the the area. Lows will remain consistent in the 
70s. 


Sat-Tue...low offshore Georgia/SC will move east-northeast-NE along or just offshore 
the southeastern Seaboard as a dlm high pressure ridge strenghtens across southern and 
ctrl Florida during the short range. Ridge will hold firm as the strong 
T-wave over the ctrl Caribbean passes the longitude of Florida well to the 
south. Mean precipitable water values will successively drop by a tenth or so each 
day this weekend such that by Monday/Tuesday values will be at or below ~1.5". This 
will translate into probability of precipitation dropping to ~30% this weekend...and around 
20% or so early next week. After Sat...surface ridge axis will build northward 
over ctrl Florida and remain there through the period...so ecsb should have 
no trouble developing and pushing inland each afternoon. 


Wed-Fri...mid/upper ridge remains oriented along east-west axis and is 
prognosticated to build northward over the southeastern Continental U.S.. GFS has been going back 
and forth on the ridge being over or north of ctrl Florida...however 
either way...regime will favor interior cos over the coast for low end 
scattered diurnal convection each afternoon. 


&& 


Aviation...development of scattered rain showers/isolated thunderstorms and rain in vicinity of most aerodromes 
this afternoon/early evening with MVFR/IFR cigs/vsbys. Improvement middle to 
late evening on. Storm motion should be back toward the coast. 


&& 


Marine...tonight...south/southwest flow around 10 kts. Seas 1-2 feet 
nearshore and ~3ft offshore. A few storms will push offshore this 
afternoon into early evening...mainly from the cape northward. Sat 
Onward...as surface ridge builds northward over the ecfl Atlantic waters...flow 
regime will remain light with diurnal sea breeze circ enhancing winds 
near the coast each afternoon. Still benign boating conds with seas at or below 3ft. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
dab 73 90 74 92 / 20 30 10 30 
mco 74 94 74 94 / 20 30 20 30 
mlb 73 90 74 91 / 10 30 10 20 
vrb 74 91 74 90 / 10 30 10 20 


&& 


Mlb watches/warnings/advisories... 
Florida...none. 
Am...none. 
&& 


$$ 


Sedlock/cristaldi