198 
fxus62 kmfl 060146 aab 
afdmfl 


Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Miami Florida 
946 PM EDT Sat Jul 5 2008 


Update 2... 
the showers and thunderstorms that affect South Florida this 
afternoon into early this evening have dissipate this evening. The 
weather should remain quite for rest of tonight for most of the 
County Warning Area...as the area will be in the subsidence portion of the tropical 
wave that is located from the Bahama Islands southwest to the 
western Caribbean Sea. 


However...there could be a few showers and thunderstorms that 
develop in the Atlantic waters late tonight as the northern 
portion of the tropical wave moves west into this area. A few 
showers could even work into the East Coast metropolitan areas before 
dissipating late tonight. So will keep isolated showers and 
thunderstorms over the Atlantic waters...and isolated showers over 
the East Coast metropolitan areas late tonight. 


The winds this evening have also been from the east around 5 to 10 
miles per hour over the East Coast metropolitan areas...while the buoys in the 
Atlantic waters and Lake Okeechobee have been 10 to 15 knots. The 
mia evening sounding was also showing 15 to 20 knots just above 
the surface. So with the northern tropical wave moving closer 
tonight this should allow for the higher winds just above the 
surface to mix down into the Atlantic...Biscayne Bay...Lake 
Okeechobee...and the offshore Gulf waters tonight. So will 
increase the winds for these waters to 15 to 20 knots and put up a 
scec for tonight. 


The East Coast metropolitan areas should also see the winds increase 
overnight to 10 to 15 miles per hour...except 15 to 20 miles per hour along the beaches. 
This will keep the temperatures up near where they are currently this 
evening. So will raise the lows up a little bit for the East Coast 
metropolitan areas for tonight. 


Rest of the forecast looks good at this time and no other changes 
are plan. 


&& 
Update...54/bnb 




Previous update... /issued 913 PM EDT Sat Jul 5 2008/ 


Aviation... 
diurnal convection has dissipated across South Florida this 
evening...and will maintain dry conditions for initial four 
hours of the forecast...with scattered/broken decks of ac/cirrus creating VFR 
ceilings. Vcsh has been placed in forecast for all East Coast 
terminals beyond 06/04z...as a weak wave of low pressure to the 
southeast of the local area is forecast to slowly approach the 
region overnight. A high coverage of thunderstorms and rain is anticipated on 
Sunday...as the wave moves over South Florida...and will use 
thunderstorms in the vicinity/cumulonimbus for all terminals...including kapf...from 06/14z through 
end of the forecast period. Surface winds along the East Coast 
have already responded to the increasing pressure gradient...and 
should remain southeast at 8-12 knots before increasing by middle-morning 
Sunday. At kapf...expect flow to remain east-southeast with speeds at or below 10 
knots. 


70/dd 


Previous discussion... /issued 222 PM EDT Sat Jul 5 2008/ 


Short term...a series of weak upper level lows will continue in the 
vicinity of the peninsula through at least Monday. This will keep 
Mainland S. Florida under rather unstable conditions. Also low level 
moisture associated with a tropical wave over the western Caribbean may be 
streamed northward keeping the local area under high scattered to likely 
probability of precipitation. SW steering flow will focus most convection over East Coast 
Sunday, however, the steering flow should be more southerly Monday 
and so thunderstorms are expected to be more concentrated over inland 
areas. 


Long term...Tuesday through Saturday...a significant change in the 
weather pattern is expected during this period. Most models show the 
deep layer Atlantic ridge building westward across Northern Peninsula 
putting Mainland South Florida under deeper easterlies (ese flow 
actually). GFS forecast soundings also show a significant decrease 
in precipitable water values during this period. Although isolated to scattered afternoon 
activity may still be expected, the focus of afternoon convection 
will be mainly interior and west. 


Marine...wind should continue east-southeast at or below 15 kts and seas at or below 4 feet 
through middle week. 


Fire weather...no concerns. Relative humidity should remain well above critical 
values. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
West Palm Beach 77 87 77 88 / 20 70 30 50 
Fort Lauderdale 78 86 77 87 / 20 70 40 50 
Miami 79 87 78 89 / 20 70 40 50 
Naples 74 89 73 89 / 10 60 30 60 


&& 


Mfl watches/warnings/advisories... 
Florida...none. 
Am...none. 
GM...none. 
&& 


$$ 


Long term...47/rhg 
short term/aviation...30/kob