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fxus64 kmob 180945 
afdmob 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Mobile Alabama 
445 am CDT Friday Jul 18 2008 


Short term (today and tonight)...latest surface map shows high pressure 
centered over the middle Atlantic region stretching S to SW to the 
north central Gulf. To the east a weak surface low is noted near the Georgia 
coast with some new convection developing near the center during the 
last couple of hours. Latest proggs suggest little to no impact to 
the central Gulf Coast region from the system through the weekend. 
Otherwise...another pleasant but hot day is expected over much of 
the County warning forecast area. Have introduced a few isolated showers and thunderstorms 
mostly offshore from diurnal effects during late night and early 
morning hours through Sunday. /32 


&& 


Long term (saturday through thursday)...the system off the Carolina 
coast on Saturday morning continues slowly northward along the East 
Coast and to the New England area by Monday while deep layer ridging 
builds over the northern Gulf and Gulf coastal area. Warm 
temperatures aloft due to subsidence will tend to inhibit convection 
through Sunday although with daytime temperatures running a couple 
degrees above seasonable levels...isolated storms will be able to 
form over the southern half or so of the forecast area. The active 
easterly waves in the Caribbean lead to a return of a light onshore 
flow through 850 mb on Monday which persists through Wednesday while 
a Canadian system moves into the northeast states. The latter 
brings a trailing front into the deep southeast states on Wednesday 
which stalls across the region on Thursday. A progressive sea 
breeze will support small probability of precipitation Monday and Tuesday with chance probability of precipitation 
for Wednesday and Thursday as the front moves into the area. 
Temperatures will meanwhile trend to near seasonable levels. /29 


&& 


Marine...high pressure will persist over the north central Gulf 
through early next week...giving way to a light southerly wind 
flow...mostly during the afternoon and evening hours through Tuesday. 
Little change in seas is expected. /32 


&& 


Aviation...VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. Will 
continue to mention vicinity showers during the afternoon hours for 
all sites. Otherwise no concerns. /32 


&& 


Fire weather...no concerns. Afternoon relative humidities remain 
generally well above critical levels through the weekend. /29 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
Mobile 94 73 92 73 / 10 10 20 10 
Pensacola 92 75 91 74 / 10 10 20 10 
Destin 91 76 90 76 / 10 10 20 10 
Evergreen 94 68 91 68 / 05 05 20 10 
Waynesboro 94 68 93 69 / 10 10 10 10 
Camden 95 69 94 69 / 10 10 10 10 


&& 


Mob watches/warnings/advisories... 
Alabama...none. 
Florida...none. 
MS...none. 
GM...none. 
&& 


$$ 


29 Eversole 
32 esbensen