826 
fxus62 kmlb 051304 
afdmlb 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Melbourne Florida 
904 am EDT Sat Jul 5 2008 


Discussion...water vapor/WV loop showing an upper low (200mb 
streamlines) centered between Lake Okeechobee and the southeast 
coast that will track southeast out into the Atlantic during the afternoon. 
WV loop also showing small wedge of drier air wrapping around the 
backside of the low as it moves east. 06z GFS picks up on this 
feature by showing slightly direr deep layer mean relative humidity and spreads it 
down the peninsula during the day which could delay afternoon 
convection a couple of hours. Sea breeze and large scale easterly 
flow will push weather away from the southern coastal areas and 
inland starting late morning then back toward the coast middle/late 
afternoon. Local WRF model looks reasonable with its indicating a 
late afternoon/early evening east/West Coast sea breeze merger from 
around northwest Volusia to Lake Kissimmee area in western Osceola 
County. Current afternoon/evening forecast grids reflect this 
thinking and do not plan on issuing a zone update at this time. 


Weak wind profiles and relatively cooler temperatures aloft 
suggest slow moving storms...locally heavy rain...possibility of 
small hail and some gusts to around 40 miles per hour in the stronger cells. 


&& 


Aviation... 
expecting a few late morning showers vrb south as the sea breeze 
forms and pushes inland and interacts with the eastward moving Lake 
Okeechobee breeze. Main thunderstorm activity should be late afternoon/early 
evening from northwest Volusia County to western Osceola County to Lake 
County where the east and West Coast sea breezes merge. 


&& 


Marine...S/SW flow to 10 knows will become southeast this afternoon...seas 1-2 
feet near the coast and around 3 feet offshore. 


&& 


Mlb watches/warnings/advisories... 
Florida...none. 
Am...none. 


&& 


$$ 


Wimmer/glitto