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fxus62 kmlb 220850 
afdmlb 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Melbourne Florida 
450 am EDT Monday Mar 22 2010 


Discussion... 


Today...cold front has cleared east central Florida but lingering 
showers will persist from south Osceola/south Brevard southward 
this morning underneath large scale ascent from upper jet maxima. 
Area of rain should gradually shift NE with time with rain chances 
diminishing by afternoon. Additional rainfall accumulations should be 
less than one quarter inch and no thunder is expected. Although 
some sunshine may occur early this morning across northern 
sections...low level cyclonic flow and approaching middle level 
trough axis will support development of quite a bit of stratocu. 
There is a small chance for sprinkles this afternoon mainly north and 
west of Orlando as the middle level vorticity crosses the area. West winds 
gusting around 25 miles per hour expected to develop this afternoon. Cool air 
advection and clouds will limit maximum temperatures to the upper 60s n&w 
Orlando. Tonight...weak high pressure will begin to build east 
from the Gulf of Mexico. Drier air should start to decrease the 
cloudiness and weakening pgrad should ease the winds. Cool low 
temperatures in the upper 40s and lower 50s expected area-wide. 


Tues-thurs...upper level trough will shift east/northeast of the 
area giving way to more zonal flow aloft through middle week across the 
area. Surface high pressure over the Gulf Tuesday will shift east and over 
the area Wednesday before moving offshore into the Atlantic Thursday. Will 
continue to stay dry through the period with temperatures gradually 
increasing. Highs Tuesday/Wednesday will remain in the 70s and then expect to 
see low 80s by Thursday over the interior. 


Fri-sun...rain chances begin to increase late in the week as a 
shortwave trough shifts east across the southeast U.S. And drags a frontal 
boundary across the region. The more consistent European model (ecmwf) is stronger 
with this trough and brings in drier air faster than the latest GFS 
which has suffered from more run to run inconsistencies. Regardless 
of these differences best rain chances still look to be during the 
day Friday. Have then leaned more toward the European model (ecmwf) into the weekend 
which makes for a dry and warm forecast with temperatures reaching near to 
slightly above normal values. 


&& 


Aviation... 
scattered rain showers will affect terminals from mlb south through 14z along with 
occasional MVFR ceilings. Elsewhere VFR conds should prevail though VFR ceilings 
around fl040 should develop mco northward after 12z. 


&& 


Marine... 
cold front has pushed offshore with west winds in its wake. 
Pressure gradient looks a little tighter across northern waters 
which should support around 20 knots for the offshore waters of 
Volusia County. So have extended Small Craft Advisory there through 
the afternoon. Small craft should exercise caution closer to the 
Volusia coast and offshore Brevard. Scattered showers will affect 
the waters south of the cape early this morning diminishing this 
afternoon. 


Tues-Fri...high pressure over the Gulf Tuesday will shift eastward and 
over the area by middle week and then continue eastward into the 
Atlantic by late week. Approaching high pressure will allow westerly 
winds to decrease Tuesday into Tuesday night and then shift to the north 
by middle week. Winds then look to shift to the S/southeast by late in the 
week and increase to near Small Craft Advisory conds ahead of an approaching frontal 
boundary. Seas will also be on a gradual decline through middle week 
with wave heights at or below 4 feet. 


&& 


Fire weather... 
drier airmass over the area will allow for relative humidity values to reach the 
middle/upper 30s over the interior both Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons. 
However duration looks limited with no watches needed at this time. 




&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
dab 69 48 70 50 / 10 10 0 0 
mco 71 50 75 51 / 10 10 0 0 
mlb 72 49 74 49 / 30 10 0 0 
vrb 72 50 75 50 / 30 10 0 0 
Lee 70 49 73 50 / 10 10 0 0 
sfb 71 50 74 51 / 10 10 0 0 
orl 70 51 74 53 / 10 10 0 0 
fpr 73 49 74 49 / 40 10 0 0 


&& 


Mlb watches/warnings/advisories... 
Florida...none. 
Am...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for waters 
from Flagler Beach to Volusia Brevard County line 20 to 60 
nm offshore. 


&& 


$$ 


Short term...Kelly 
long term....weitlich