162 
fxus62 ktae 211436 
afdtae 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Tallahassee Florida 
936 am EST Sat Nov 21 2009 


Update...the morning surface analysis showed low pressure 
centered over the northwestern Gulf or just off the la coast with a warm 
front extending east and southeast over the north-central Gulf. 
Recently animated vapor loop showed an upper low centered west of 
this surface feature over the Texas coast with plenty of middle-to-upper 
moisture streaming northeast over the southeast region. Expect 
this low/warm front to continue on a east-northeast track through the day 
today and tonight. This will result in increasing deep layer moisture 
and rain chances today...mainly in the form of light rain or 
sprinkles. The best chance for heavier showers and storms will 
come later this evening and tonight as this low/warm front track 
over the local area. As the upper low over the Texas coast tracks east-northeast 
across the region...the models all indicate it weakening or 
filling. Although this will lead to a decreasing severe threat for 
our area tonight...some strong storms will remain possible in this 
environment...especially over the adjacent coastal waters and 
along the coast tonight. 


&& 


Aviation...low clouds and ceilings affecting aby...tlh...vld 
this morning will dissipate by middle morning. VFR conditions 
expected all terminals during much of day..but lowering ceilings 
by late afternoon from west to east as low pressure system 
progresses into area. Overnight... expect IFR to LIFR conditions 
with rain...low ceilings and fog. 


&& 


Tae watches/warnings/advisories... 
Alabama...none. 
Georgia...none. 
Florida...none. 
GM...none. 
&& 


$$ 


Gibbs/Goree