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fxus62 ktbw 211736 cca 
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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin Florida 
138 PM EDT Thursday Aug 21 2008 


Short term (tonight - saturday)...persistent Fay should begin a 
slow motion to the northwest tonight after drenching most of eastern 
central Florida coastal counties. Latest forecast track from the 
National Hurricane Center brings the center of circulation close to 
Levy County by Friday morning...but the system is expected to weaken 
considerably and keep the strongest winds in its northeastern 
quadrant. This will keep any tropical storm force winds outside of 
the County Warning Area with only occasional gusts nearing tropical storm strength 
mainly over Sumter and Levy counties. Therefore...no tropical storm 
watches or warnings are required for any portion of the County Warning Area at this 
time. The threat that will remain during the passage of Fay will be 
potential for significant flooding. Some of the rainbands spiraling 
around Fay may bring periods of very heavy rain over much of the 
Nature Coast starting later tonight. 


For the Tampa Bay area and south to Lee County...there will be some 
rainbands also developing over central Florida as Fay makes its 
final push to the northwest. Since the forward motion of the storm 
is slow...expect any rainband that develops over the area to linger 
around long enough to bring numerous showers and isolated 
thunderstorms with 60 to 70 probability of precipitation in place this evening and through 
Friday. Some breezy periods are also expected. 


As Fay finally departs from the state on Saturday...chances for rain 
return back to climatology with isolated to scattered showers in the 
afternoon and evening hours. 


Temperatures should remain cooler than climatology for the most part as 
significant cloud cover will remain over the state through Saturday. 


&& 


Long term (saturday night - thursday)...abundant tropical moisture 
(pw's >2") streaming northward into the forecast area on a deep 
layered southerly wind flow on the eastern side of Fays weakening 
circulation over the central Panhandle Saturday night will continue 
to support extensive cloudiness and above normal rain (pops ~50%) 
chances across the forecast area Saturday night through Monday. 


Remnants of Fay will linger over the southeastern states Tuesday 
through Thursday as upper/surface ridging slowly builds in over the 
south Central Peninsula. Ample low level moisture should keep rain 
chances elevated (pops ~50%) through the period as a weak pressure 
pattern supports diurnal convection developing along the sea breeze 
circulations each afternoon. Temperatures will run a few degrees 
below normal through Monday due to cloud cover and rain 
chances...then near normal Tuesday through Thursday. 


&& 


Aviation...periods of MVFR ceilings/visibilities will affect the 
terminal sites the remainder of this afternoon through Friday as 
rain bands wrapping around Tropical Storm Fay move across the 
region. Outside of the rain areas VFR conditions are expected. 
Surface winds from the northwest this afternoon will gradually back 
to the west and southwest tonight and Thursday as Fay moves slowly 
west northwest across the Northern Peninsula. Wind speeds will 
average around 15 knots but gusts up to 30 knots will be possible in 
the vicinity of the rain bands or isolated thunderstorm activity. 


&& 


Marine...Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for all marine 
zones...except Tampa Bay...until 10 PM EDT tonight which will may be 
extended as the passage of Fay to the north of the coastal waters 
could keep winds in the 20 knot range through Friday late evening. 
The Tampa Bay waters remain under scec also through 10 PM EDT 
tonight. Stay tuned to your National oceanic and atmospheric administration weather radio...and local media 
outlets for the latest marine weather updates from your National 
Weather Service in Ruskin Florida. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
tpa 77 87 75 87 / 60 70 50 50 
fmy 77 87 74 88 / 50 60 40 50 
gif 76 88 74 90 / 60 70 50 50 
srq 78 86 75 86 / 50 60 50 50 
bkv 75 88 73 88 / 80 80 50 50 
spg 80 85 78 86 / 60 70 50 50 


&& 


Tbw watches/warnings/advisories... 
Florida...Flood Watch through Friday evening for Citrus-Hernando-Levy- 
Sumter. 


Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for 
Bonita Beach to Englewood out 20 nm-Bonita Beach to Englewood 
out 20 to 60 nm-Englewood to Tarpon Springs out 20 
nm-Englewood to Tarpon Springs out 20 to 60 nm-Tarpon Springs 
to Suwannee River out 20 nm-Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River 
out 20 to 60 nm. 


Small craft exercise caution through this evening for Tampa Bay 
waters. 


&& 


$$ 


Short term/marine...Arkansas 
long term/aviation...jcm