191 
fxus65 kbou 182107 
afdbou 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Denver Colorado 
305 PM MDT Friday Jul 18 2008 


Short term...convection currently confined to mountains...foothills 
and Palmer Divide as shown by latest radar. Water vapor loops show 
shortwave over western Colorado...currently more diffuse than 
earlier loops shown. Across plains...airmass capped from earlier 
surge which moved across area. Current laps surface analysis and 
acars soundings showing large area of cin...though convective available potential energy have 
increased to over 1000 j/kg. Wave to move across remainder of County Warning Area 
this evening...though most of the convection should occur over areas 
south of Interstate 70. As for plains...shortwave may be enough to 
break cap and initiate convection once it moves across area. Will 
keep the higher probability of precipitation along Palmer Divide and Lincoln County. 
Still some potential for a few severe storms east of a Fort Morgan 
to Kiowa line where dewpoints currently hover in the 50s. Hail and 
strong outflow wind the main threats. Integrated precipitable water 
values currently around nine tenths of an inch...so heavy rain still 
a possibility. As wave moves east of area during the evening...drier 
air will move in from the west. As a result...should see skies clear 
around midnight. Boundary layer wind and humidity forecasts indicate 
potential for some stratus and perhaps fog across the far northeast 
plains after midnight...though doesn't seem to be enough to make 
much of impact. On Saturday...upper level ridge builds over 
region...with hot and dry conditions returning. Model cross sections 
show most of moisture being suppressed south of the area...with some 
middle level moisture along the extreme southern regions of County Warning Area. 
Daytime heating to provide enough instability...which could pop a 
few afternoon storms along the higher terrain south of Interstate 
70. Already low probability of precipitation in that area...will continue for this package. 
Latest temperature and thickness forecasts as well as guidance suggest 
highs in the 90s across the plains. Current temperature grids in 
line with guidance...and looks reasonable. 


Long term...hot and dry conditions will remain in place through 
Sunday. Would not be surprised to see a few spots on the plains 
including Denver reach the century mark given 700 mb temperatures around 
20c. The only threat of convection would be confined to the high 
country where a bit of monsoonal moisture tries to sneak into the 
area by late in the day. These would produce only very light 
rainfall but strong gusty winds. 


The forecast pattern remains largely unchanged through most of next 
week with the upper level high waffling over the central rockies and 
southern High Plains. However...this general position should allow 
monsoonal moisture better and more persistent access to at least 
western and central Colorado. Will increase probability of precipitation just a tad more 
over the mountains while on the plains airmass will average drier 
and more stable through the period. As a result...the limited 
10-20% probability of precipitation should suffice over the plains for now with better 
chances of rain likely holding off until later in the week. 
Temperatures will still average several degrees above normal. 


&& 


Aviation...scattered thunderstorms expected through 04z...with 
gusty outflow winds to 40 kts the main threat. A few storms could 
produce heavy rain. VFR conditions to prevail. Some low clouds to 
develop across far eastern plains between 09z and 15z...should be 
well east of the dia. Dry air over area Saturday. Slight chance of 
thunderstorms after 18z along the southern foothills...should not 
have any affect on local airports. 


&& 


Bou watches/warnings/advisories...none. 


&& 
D-l/barjenbruch