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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Grand Junction Colorado 
433 am MST Thursday Mar 11 2010 


Short term...today through Friday night... 


The -26c cold core hovers over the region this morning. The cyclonic 
flow at 700-500mb last night has become straight north this 
morning as the final disturbance drops southeast through New Mexico. Cloud tops 
are warming...but snow showers linger over north-facing slopes. Radar 
indicates showers are continuing in the Telluride-Highway 550 gorge 
this morning...so extended the advisory until 10am for the northwest San 
Juan Mountains snow showers will diminish in intensity from west to east 
through the day. 


Warm advection aloft tonight will allow for good radiational 
cooling. Morning fog is a possibility if the boundary layer remains 
moist through this afternoon. Otherwise a high amplitude ridge 
builds in from the west Friday and Friday night with sunny skies 
bringing recovering temperatures. 


Long term...Saturday through Thursday 
Saturday through Monday... 
model runs from Tuesday evening through this night have been 
generally consistent for our County Warning Area...and therefore now have good degree 
of confidence in models. So...Saturday looks to be dry and mild over 
our County Warning Area under a southerly flow aloft ahead of next Pacific weather 
system. Maximum temperatures on Saturday likely to approach normals...but should 
be limited from reaching normal due to increasing clouds by 
afternoon. A few showers may develop by late afternoon in the 
mountains of NE Utah. Then areas of snow mountains and rain/snow 
lower elevations expected Saturday night mainly southern zones as the 
upper low approaches The Four Corners area from the northwest. Upper low 
expected to reach El Paso area by late Sunday night. Precipitation 
appears to be limited due to the relatively fast movement of the 
system...and mountain snowfall amounts not likely to reach advisory 
criteria except in the La Sal and Abajo Mountains. Could still have a 
few lingering snow flurries over western San Juan Mountains early 
Monday...otherwise a drying and warming trend will begin on Monday as 
high amplitude upper ridge begins to move into our area. 


Monday night through Thursday... 
upper ridge expected to dominate the weather over our County Warning Area from 
late Monday through at least Wednesday. Then models in agreement 
for SW flow aloft on Thursday ahead of another Pacific shortwave 
trough. Dry conditions expected for our area through this period 
with the warming trend likely to result in temperatures a little above 
normal. 


&& 


Aviation... 
MVFR and areas of IFR ceilings/visibilities in snow and slope fog will linger 
today mainly over the western Colorado mountains. VFR conditions 
will be widespread this afternoon across eastern Utah...then western 
Colorado after 00z this evening. 


&& 


Gjt watches/warnings/advisories... 


Colorado...Winter Weather Advisory continues through 10 am MST Thursday 
for zone 018. 
Utah...none. 


&& 


$$ 


Short term...Joe 
long term....jrp 
aviation.....Joe