675 
fxus66 klox 051242 
afdlox 


Southwest California area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard California 
440 am PDT Sat Jul 5 2008 


..updated aviation discussion... 


Short term...low clouds confined to the central coast and the Santa 
Ynez Valley at this time. However...some stratus was beginning to 
develop just west of l.A. And vtu counties...so expect at least patchy 
coverage near the beaches this morning. Marine inversion was again 
running around 1200 feet deep this morning...slightly higher than 
Friday morning at this time. North-S grads have weekend...and winds have 
diminished below advisory levels across sba County this morning. West-east 
grads are slightly more onshore this morning. With some cooling at 
950 mb today and stronger onshore grads...expect a few degrees 
of cooling in coastal and valley areas today...with little change in the 
mountains and deserts. 


A broad trough will move into the west CST tonight and Sunday. 
The WRF shows a weak eddy circulation developing across the inner waters 
tonight...so expect a bit more in the way of low clouds and fog across 
l.A. And vtu counties. With some cooling at 950 mb...there may be a 
couple of more degrees of cooling in coastal and valley areas on Sunday. 
Mountains and dsrts will have little change in temperatures on Sunday. 


An upper high will strengthen across the eastern Pacific Sun night and 
Monday...with the center off the CST at about the latitude of San 
Francisco. With rising heights/thicknesses across the region...temperatures 
will likely rise in the mountains and deserts...and possibly the interior 
valleys as well...as the marine layer begins to shrink in depth. 


Long term...the 00z run of the GFS showed the upper high continuing to 
strengthen Tuesday...then it will shift eastward into the west CST Wednesday and 
Thursday...then weaken some on Friday. This should bring much above normal 
temperatures to the mountains and dsrts next week...with well above normal 
temperatures in the valleys...especially Wednesday and Thursday. It still appears 
that there will be enough of a marine influence to keep temperatures on the 
coastal plain from getting out of hand. The 06z run of the GFS is 
somewhat weaker with the high for Wednesday and Thursday...and now shows 
a weak upper low off of Baja California...with some monsoonal moisture spreading 
into the area for Friday...with the possibility of some showers/tstms. 
Did not have this solution for the zone package...and am still not 
completely sold on it...but the European model (ecmwf) was trending in that direction 
as well. If later runs continue to show this...will have to mention 
some probability of precipitation for Friday. 


&& 


Aviation...05/1130z. 
S of Point Conception...mostly VFR conds today. Some IFR/MVFR patchy 
stratus just south of la County this morning...but should not affect 
klax this morning. Smoke layer from gap fire in sba County mountains will 
linger across portions of sba County as well as vtu County today 
between 7-10k. 


North of Point Conception...after LIFR/IFR conds burnoff by 18z...expect 
VFR conds with local smoke possible across northern slow County this 
afternoon. 


Klax...good confidence that IFR/MVFR ceilings will stay south this 
morning. Expect VFR conds through at least 08z...then moderate 
confidence of patchy MVFR conds a few hours before dawn. 


Kbur...high confidence in clear skies today. 


&& 


Lox watches/warnings/advisories... 
Gale Warning (see laxcwflox). 
Small Craft Advisory (see laxcwflox). 


&& 


$$ 


Public...Bruno 
aviation...Kaplan 


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