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fxus66 ksgx 240432 
afdsgx 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service San Diego California 
930 PM PDT Wednesday Jul 23 2008 


Synopsis...a gradual increase in moisture aloft will bring a chance 
of showers and thunderstorms to the mountains and deserts over the 
weekend and early next week. Coastal and valley areas will enjoy 
sunny...warm days through Sunday after the morning marine layer 
Burns off. 


&& 


Discussion...for southwest California including San Diego... 
Orange...southwest San Bernardino and West Riverside counties. 


Atmosphere was very dry this evening with a precipitable water of only 0.38 inches. 
Dewpoints were much lower in the mountains and deserts compared to 
yesterday evening. Not surprisingly...the monsoon thunderstorms were 
confined to Arizona today where deeper moisture resides. It will 
remain well to our east on Thursday. 


Moisture from the remnants of Hurricane Dolly will track along the 
Texas/Mexico border Thursday and Friday...as Dolly weakens into to 
an easterly wave during that time. The easterly winds are not overly 
impressive and the deep moisture surge will remain to our east over 
Arizona. Our mountains and deserts will be on the western fringe of 
this moisture...limiting the convective potential over the weekend 
to slight chance. 


Next week the long range models are projecting little change in the 
overall pattern with a upper ridge over the 4-corners and a weak 
upper trough off the California coast. This will keep US on the edge of any 
deep monsoon moisture and keep our thunderstorm chances confined to 
the mountains and deserts early next week. 


&& 


Aviation...240300 
marine layer stratus is forming over the coastal waters with bases 
around 1000 feet mean sea level. Afternoon soundings show the marine layer 
depth at about 1500 feet with little change expected overnight. The 
stratus is expected to return to coastal airports between 06z and 
08z...then spread inland 15 to 20 miles with bases near fl012 and 
tops near fl016 by 12z Thursday...otherwise clear with unrestricted 
visibility above the marine layer. 


&& 


Sgx watches/warnings/advisories...none. 


&& 


$$ 


Public...moede 
aviation...pg