224 
fxus66 ksgx 042007 
afdsgx 


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service San Diego California 
130 PM PDT Friday Jul 4 2008 


Synopsis... 
a shallow marine layer will continue coastal low clouds and fog 
during the nights and mornings. Otherwise...upper level high 
pressure will keep the weather fair with warm to hot days inland. 
A small amount of middle level moisture will bring some clouds to the 
mountains this afternoon with a slight chance of thunderstorms over 
the San Diego County mountains. 


&& 


Discussion...for extreme southwestern California including Orange... 
San Diego...western Riverside and southwestern San Bernardino 
counties... 


Earth reached aphelion or farthest point from the sun in its orbit 
around the sun...distance 94.5 million miles...around 08z today. 


Marine layer remains very shallow this afternoon with mdcrs 
soundings from ksan and ksna indicating a depth of less than 300 
feet. Stratus/fog remains confined to the immediate coast. 


Middle and high level moisture continue to move over the mountains and 
deserts from the east and southeast but no vertical development at 
this time except over the mountains of northern Baja California south of the 
border. 


Low level moisture from a Gulf surge remains over the southern 
deserts with dew points near 70 f or greater. 


12z models continue to show the area under a weak flow associated 
with a cull between the ridge offshore and the one to the east. This 
continues through the weekend which should limit any convection over 
the mountains. Should the southerly flow push westward over the 
mountains...convection would be more widespread. Models continue to 
show a fairly significant amount of middle level moisture over the area 
today through Saturday then fading away on Sunday. 


In the longer range...European model (ecmwf) model is more bullish on moisture late 
in the coming week into next weekend over the area than the GFS 
model. The GFS model does show some moisture but not as deep. At 
this time will lean towards just partly cloudy for the mountains for 
that period. Otherwise continued dry through the period. 


&& 


Aviation... 
042000z...shallow marine layer below 1000 feet. Low stratus and fog 
persisted early this afternoon near the immediate coast and beaches 
but should generally clear out through 23z. Bases were mainly below 500 
feet mean sea level with 3-5sm MVFR visibility in fog/haze...except some beach 
sites at 20z reported local 1sm or less. 


For tonight areas of stratus and patchy fog will start to reform 
mainly after 06z near the immediate coast and briefly reach 5-10 
miles inland from 12-15z Sat. Otherwise low clouds and fog will 
stay confined along the immediate coastline after 15z Sat. 


Above the marine layer...unrestricted visibilities will continue 
this afternoon through tonight. Some afternoon cumulus over the 
mountains and occasionally some bands of altocu with bases around 
fl100. 


Maximum temperatures Saturday for kpsp/ktrm from 41-44c...ksna 25-28c. 


&& 


Sgx watches/warnings/advisories... 
California...none. 
Pz...none. 


&& 


$$ 


Public...Horton 
aviation/marine...lavis 


National Weather Service on the web at weather.Gov/sandiego