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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Flagstaff Arizona 
330 PM MST Thursday Aug 7 2008 


Synopsis...northern Arizona will remain in a moist airmass for at 
least the next several days. Expect scattered to numerous showers 
and thunderstorms each day...mainly during the afternoon and evening 
hours. Daytime temperatures will be near average for this time of 
year. 


&& 


Discussion...convection was a little late developing today...but is 
now reaching anticipated coverage. The most active areas into the 
evening will be focused along the central rim...and westward into 
Yavapai County. 


Beyond this evening...a plume of high precipitable water air centered along the 
lower Colorado River will slowly push back eastward over the next 
few days as the streamlines take on more of a southwesterly 
direction. Theta-E ridge and peak precipitable water values will then remain 
anchored over central Arizona through the weekend...with a fairly 
active pattern expected. Some drying will begin next week...but much 
of the area will remain under at least a low to moderate grade 
monsoonal pattern. 


&& 


Aviation...for the 00z package...sct-bkn thunderstorms and rain will continue over 
northern Arizona through 04z with MVFR/IFR conditions possible in the stronger 
storms. After 04z look for scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms and rain with precipitation 
ending by 09z and then scattered-broken middle-level clouds through 15z Friday. 
After 18z Friday...sct-nmrs rain showers/thunderstorms and rain with isolated +tsra will redevelop. 
Aviation discussion not updated for amendments. 


&& 


Fire weather...see fire weather forecast (fwffgz) for discussion of 
days 1 and 2. 


Sunday through Tuesday...a moist and unstable airmass will bring 
scattered showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and evening. 


&& 


$$ 


Public...............Peterson 
aviation/fire weather.....41 


Visit weather.Gov/Flagstaff for northern Arizona weather information.